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Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?

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  • Mr. Daniel Leigh
  • Weicheng Lian
  • Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
  • Rachel Szymanski
  • Viktor Tsyrennikov
  • Hong Yang

Abstract

We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity of trade volumes are largely stable over time. Economic slack and financial conditions affect the relationship, but there is limited evidence that participation in global value chains has significantly changed the exchange rate–trade relationship over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Daniel Leigh & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Rachel Szymanski & Viktor Tsyrennikov & Hong Yang, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?," IMF Working Papers 2017/058, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/058
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    2. Palazzo, Gabriel & Rapetti, Martín, 2023. "From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 223-252.
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    6. Fisera, Boris, 2024. "Exchange rates and the speed of economic recovery: The role of financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    7. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Albu, Nora & Joebges, Heike & Zwiener, Rudolf, 2022. "An input-output analysis of unit labour cost developments of the German manufacturing sector since the mid-1990s," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-1.
    9. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea," IMF Working Papers 2017/267, International Monetary Fund.
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    14. Emine Boz & Gita Gopinath & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2017. "Global Trade and the Dollar," Working Paper 489661, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    15. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Radzikowski, Bartosz & Rzońca, Andrzej & Wojciechowski, Wiktor, 2020. "Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 59-81.
    16. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/230, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Byron Gangnes & Ari Van Assche, 2016. "Global Value Chains and Changing Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 201617, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    19. Gor A. Khachatryan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2020. "Export Growth Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Armenia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 493-509, July.
    20. Edwards Lawrence & Hlatshwayo Ayanda, 2020. "Exchange rates and firm export performance in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Adler, Gustavo & Meleshchuk, Sergii & Buitron, Carolina Osorio, 2023. "Global value chains and external adjustment: Do exchange rates still matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    22. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    23. Lawrence Edwards & Ayanda Hlatshwayo, 2020. "Exchange rates and firm export performance in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    24. David Perez-Reyna & Filippo Rebessi, 2018. "Devaluations and Growth: The Role of Financial Development," 2018 Meeting Papers 1118, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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