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Rethinking the Exchange Rate Impact on Trade in a World with Global Value Chains

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  • Kevin C. Cheng
  • Gee Hee Hong
  • Dulani Seneviratne
  • Rachel van Elkan

Abstract

Global value chains (GVCs) are a prominent feature of global production and trading systems. Using the OECD-WTO database on trade in value added, this paper examines the exchange rate elasticities of GVC-related exports and imports and compares them with elasticities for trade in traditonal goods. We find that a real depreciation raises both the foreign and domestic value-added content of GVC-related exports. The size of these elasticities is found to be smaller when the import content of GVC exports is larger. Among the key policy implications of these results is that exchange rate changes by small contributors of value added have little effect on their own production or the production of their supply chain partners. On the other hand, large contributors to the value-added of the final product create spillovers to their smaller supply chain partners, obviating traditional beggar-thy-neighbor concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin C. Cheng & Gee Hee Hong & Dulani Seneviratne & Rachel van Elkan, 2016. "Rethinking the Exchange Rate Impact on Trade in a World with Global Value Chains," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 204-216, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:30:y:2016:i:2:p:204-216
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2016.1148418
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Rachel Szymanski & Viktor Tsyrennikov & Hong Yang, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?," IMF Working Papers 2017/058, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2016. "Singapore’s Export Elasticities: A Disaggregated Look into the Role of Global Value Chains and Economic Complexity," IMF Working Papers 2016/052, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bhushan Praveen Jangam & Hari Venkatesh, 2022. "Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate Disconnect," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(4), pages 347-359, December.
    4. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2019. "The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Papers 2019/193, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Prilepskiy, Ilya (Прилепский, Илья), 2017. "Factors of Exports Dynamics and Import Substitution after the Sharp Exchange Rate Depreciation [Факторы Динамики Экспорта И Импортозамещения После Резкого Ослабления Курса Национальной Валюты]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 100-133, June.
    6. Adler, Gustavo & Meleshchuk, Sergii & Buitron, Carolina Osorio, 2023. "Global value chains and external adjustment: Do exchange rates still matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Fišera, Boris & Horváth, Roman, 2022. "Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    9. Zhiheng Wu & Guisheng Hou & Baogui Xin, 2020. "Has the Belt and Road Initiative Brought New Opportunities to Countries Along the Routes to Participate in Global Value Chains?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    10. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Maximiliano Appendino & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2018. "Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains," IMF Working Papers 2018/229, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ryan M. Weldzius, 2021. "The end of currency manipulation? Global production networks and exchange rate outcomes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 514-532, November.
    12. SATO Kiyotaka & Shajuan ZHANG, 2019. "Do Exchange Rates Matter in Global Value Chains?," Discussion papers 19059, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.

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