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Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment

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  • Khee Giap Tan
  • Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong
  • Hui Yin Chuah

Abstract

Exchange rate risk remains a key concern for export-oriented economies in Southeast Asia. Traditionally, export performance is thought to be adversely affected by exchange rate appreciation and high exchange rate volatility. Nonetheless, in the context of global value chains where export production relies heavily on imported inputs, the trade effects of exchange rate may be weakened. Using the OECD-WTO Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database, this paper seeks to tease out the association between exchange rate movements, volatility and aggregate exports of goods and services among ASEAN economies. More importantly, it investigates whether integration into GVCs affects these relationships. Applying panel regression techniques to a sample of eight ASEAN countries over the period 1995–2011, we found that high share of foreign value added (FVA) embodied in exports almost completely offsets the negative effect of an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate (REER) on real gross exports. At the same time, high FVA share also dampens the negative association between exports and increased REER volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:28:y:2019:i:7:p:873-901
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2019.1607532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    3. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
    4. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Rachel Szymanski & Viktor Tsyrennikov & Hong Yang, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?," IMF Working Papers 2017/058, International Monetary Fund.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 1984. "Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade," IMF Occasional Papers 1984/005, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Baron, David P, 1976. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Forward Markets, and the Level of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 253-266, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zicheng Ma & Liang Wang & Xin Zheng & Jianqi Zhang, 2022. "National Innovation Systems and Global Value Chain Participation: The Role of Entrepreneurship," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(2), pages 897-920, April.
    2. Zhiheng Wu & Guisheng Hou & Baogui Xin, 2020. "The Causality between Participation in GVCs, Renewable Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-26, February.

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