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Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council

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  • Mr. Alberto Behar

Abstract

We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alberto Behar, 2015. "Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council," IMF Working Papers 2015/191, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/191
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    Cited by:

    1. Görg, Holger & Hornok, Cecília & Montagna, Catia & Onwordi, George E., 2018. "Employment to Output Elasticities & Reforms towards Flexicurity: Evidence from OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 12004, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2018. "External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 926-957, March.
    3. Blazquez, Jorge & Galeotti, Marzio & Manzano, Baltasar & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar, 2021. "Effects of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms: Insights from a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 145-169.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/327, International Monetary Fund.

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