IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/0806.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Long-Run Stability of Money in the ProposedE ast AfricanMonetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • A. Asongu, Simplice

    (African Governance and Development Institute, Cameroon)

  • E. Folarin, Oludele

    (University of Ibadan, Nigeria)

  • Biekpe, Nicholas

    (University of Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract

This study investigates the stability of money in the proposed East African Monetary Union using annual data within 1981-2015 of five countries comprising the East African Community.A standard money demand function is designed and estimated using a bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modeling.F indings show that countries exhibit divergence that is articulated in terms of differences in cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM squared (CUSUMSQ) tests, short- and long-term determinants, and error correction during a shock.B ased on the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, results show that Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania have stable money demand, whereas the remaining countries, namely, Kenya and Uganda, have partial stability only.D uring a shock, Kenya is the fastest to restore its long-run equilibrium, followed by Tanzania and Burundi.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Asongu, Simplice & E. Folarin, Oludele & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2020. "The Long-Run Stability of Money in the ProposedE ast AfricanMonetary Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(3), pages 457-478.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.e-jei.org/
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Folarin, Oludele E. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Financial liberalization and long-run stability of money demand in Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 963-980.
    2. Chrysost Bangaké, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Optimum Currency Area: Evidence from Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10.
    3. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 4, European Central Bank.
    4. Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J. & Fargher, Scott, 2013. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 978-991.
    5. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "How Would Monetary Policy Matter In The Proposed African Monetary Unions? Evidence From Output And Prices," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 34-63.
    6. Drama, Bedi Guy Herve & Yao, Shen, 2010. "The Demand for Money in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from the Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 20131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Mr. Hamid R Davoodi & S. V. S. Dixit & Gabor Pinter, 2013. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2013/039, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Narayan K. Kishor & John Ssozi, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Proposed East African Monetary Union: An Unobserved Component Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 664-675, November.
    10. Simplice Asongu & Oludele Folarin & Nicholas Biekpe, 2019. "The stability of demand for money in the proposed Southern African Monetary Union," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 222-244, August.
    11. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
    14. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2017. "A Literature Survey On Proposed African Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 878-902, July.
    15. Buigut, Steven K. & Valev, Neven T., 2005. "Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2119-2133, December.
    16. Santi Chaisrisawatsuk & Subhash Sharma & Abdur Chowdhury, 2004. "Money demand stability under currency substitution: some recent evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 19-27.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2009. "How stable is the demand for money in African countries?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 216-235, July.
    18. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Policy Focus: Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 166-190, September.
    19. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2013. "Financial liberalization and demand for money: a case of Pakistan," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(2), pages 175-198, July-Dece.
    20. Akhtar Hossain, 1993. "Financial Reforms, Stability of the Money Demand Function and Monetary Policy in Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 85-100, January.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 213-227.
    23. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2008. "Open economy inflation targeting arrangements and monetary policy rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 237-251, September.
    24. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:213-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    26. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    27. Babajide Fowowe, 2013. "Financial Liberalization In Sub-Saharan Africa: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, February.
    28. Asongu, Simplice A. & Folarin, Oludele E. & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2019. "The long run stability of money demand in the proposed West African monetary union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 483-495.
    29. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    30. ,, 2009. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 8, number 9780199563234.
    31. Lydia Ndirangu & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo, 2015. "Financial Innovations and Their Implications for Monetary Policy in Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(suppl_1), pages 46-71.
    32. James, Gregory A., 2005. "Money demand and financial liberalization in Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 817-829, October.
    33. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 276-289, June.
    34. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "Real and monetary policy convergence: EMU crisis to the CFA zone," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 20-38, April.
    35. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1012-1017, September.
    36. Simplice Asongu, 2015. "Liberalisation and Financial Sector Competition: A Critical Contribution to the Empirics with an African Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 425-451, September.
    37. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Herve Joly & Mr. Ari Aisen & Mr. Emre Alper & Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne & Mr. Jemma Dridi & Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili & Mr. Tom Josephs & Ms. Clara Mira & Mr. Vimal V Thakoor , 2015. "Monitoring and Managing Fiscal Risks in the East African Community," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2015/009, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Rup Singh & Saten Kumar, 2012. "Application of the alternative techniques to estimate demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(2), pages 43-63, July-Dece.
    39. Ferda HALICIOGLU & Mehmet UGUR, 2005. "On Stability of the Demand for Money in a Developing OECD," Macroeconomics 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
    41. Akinlo, A. Enisan, 2006. "The stability of money demand in Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-452, May.
    42. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:12:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    44. Michael Enowbi Batuo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "The impact of liberalisation policies on income inequality in African countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(1), pages 68-100, January.
    45. Buigut, Steven & Valev, Neven T., 2009. "Benefits from Mutual Restraint in a Multilateral Monetary Union," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 585-594, March.
    46. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    47. Laetitia Lepetit & Clovis Rugemintwari & Frank Strobel, 2015. "Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1179-1204, August.
    48. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2002. "Stability of the Nigerian M2 Money Demand Function in the SAP Period," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(3), pages 1-9.
    49. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 166-192, September.
    50. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Does money matter in Africa?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 142-180, November.
    51. Ferda Halicioglu & Mehmet Ugur, 2005. "On stability of the demand for money in a developing OECD country: the case of Turkey," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(2/3), pages 203-213.
    52. William Miles, 2015. "The East African Monetary Union: Is the Level of Business Cycle Synchronization Sufficient?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 115-125, November.
    53. Thomas Kigabo RUSUHUZWA & Paul Robert MASSON, 2012. "Design and Implementation of a Common Currency Area in the East African Community," Working Papers tecipa-451, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    54. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Luisa Charry & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/197, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Kuteesa, Annette, 2012. "East African Regional Integration: Challenges in meeting the convergence criteria for monetary union," Research Series 148956, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Akbar, 2023. "Effects of inflation uncertainty and exchange rate volatility on money demand in Pakistan: Bayesian econometric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1470-1487, April.
    2. Silas Kiprono SAMOEI & Edwin Kipyego KIPCHOGE, 2020. "Drivers of Horticultural Exports in Kenya," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(2), pages 27-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simplice Asongu & Oludele Folarin & Nicholas Biekpe, 2019. "The stability of demand for money in the proposed Southern African Monetary Union," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 222-244, August.
    2. Asongu, Simplice A. & Folarin, Oludele E. & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2019. "The long run stability of money demand in the proposed West African monetary union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 483-495.
    3. Folarin, Oludele E. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Financial liberalization and long-run stability of money demand in Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 963-980.
    4. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI)," Working Papers 20/003, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    5. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2017. "A Literature Survey On Proposed African Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 878-902, July.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2017. "A summary of a survey on proposed African monetary unions," Research Africa Network Working Papers 17/008, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    7. Augustine Ujunwa & Emmanuel Onah & Angela Ifeanyi Ujunwa & Chinwe R Okoyeuzu & Ebere Ume Kalu, 2022. "Financial innovation and the stability of money demand in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(2), pages 215-231, June.
    8. Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J. & Fargher, Scott, 2013. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 978-991.
    9. Olatunji A. Shobande & Oladimeji T. Shodipe & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Global Shocks Alert and Monetary Policy Responses," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/066, African Governance and Development Institute..
    10. Mouyad Alsamara & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on the demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 335-356, April.
    11. Kumar, Saten, 2011. "Financial reforms and money demand: Evidence from 20 developing countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 323-334, September.
    12. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Padhan, Hemachandra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Understanding the time-frequency dynamics of money demand, oil prices and macroeconomic variables: The case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Demand for Money and its Stability in Tanzania," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-192, June.
    14. Peter Nsokolo Mumba & Emmanuel Ziramba, 2021. "An Analysis of the Money Demand Function for Zambia: A Gregory Hansen Cointegration Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12.
    15. Simplice Asongu, 2016. "New empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 164-204, June.
    16. Aweng Peter Majok Garang & Hatice Erkekoglu, 2020. "Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 495-517, December.
    17. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2011. "Demand for Money in Hungary: An ARDL Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 01-16, November.
    18. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 13/005, African Governance and Development Institute..
    19. Asongu, Simplice, 2015. "Growth and Institutions in African Development by Augustin K. Fosu," MPRA Paper 68656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Is There a Change in the Money Demand Stability in Turkey? A Nonlinear Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 28-42, 06-2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stable; demand for money; bounds test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yunhoe Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.