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Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms

Author

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  • Ms. Joana Pereira
  • Mr. Philippe D Karam
  • Mr. Dirk V Muir
  • Ms. Anita Tuladhar

Abstract

The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we find that public pension reforms can have a positive effect on growth in both the short run, propelled by rising consumption, and in the long run, due to lower government debt crowding in higher investment. We also find that a reform action undertaken cooperatively by all regions results in larger output effects, reflecting stronger capital accumulation due to higher world savings. An increase in the retirement age reform yields the strongest impact in the short run, due to the demand effects of higher labor income and in the long run because of supply effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Joana Pereira & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Ms. Anita Tuladhar, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2010/297, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boris Cournède & Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 520, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2017. "Reforming in a Difficult Macroeconomic Context: A Review of Issues and Recent Literature," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-41, February.
    2. Kenichiro Kashiwase & Mr. Masahiro Nozaki & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Pension Reforms in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/285, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Seok G Park, 2012. "Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space," IMF Working Papers 2012/164, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Baksa, Daniel & Munkacsi, Zsuzsa & Nerlich, Carolin, 2020. "A framework for assessing the costs of pension reform reversals," Working Paper Series 2396, European Central Bank.
    5. Luca MARCHIORI & Olivier PIERRARD & Henri R. SNEESSENS, 2011. "Demography, capital flows and unemployment," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2011040, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Abdul Hadi & Emese Bruder & Widhayani Puri Setioningtyas, 2022. "Comparison of the World’s Best Pension Systems: The Lesson for Indonesia," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    9. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    10. Mr. Dirk V Muir & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant," IMF Working Papers 2013/049, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Frank Eich & Mauricio Soto & Ms. Charleen A Gust, 2012. "Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 2012/201, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "The possible impact of pension age changes on Malta’s potential output," CBM Policy Papers PP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.

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