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Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant

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  • Mr. Dirk V Muir
  • Miss Anke Weber

Abstract

With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Dirk V Muir & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant," IMF Working Papers 2013/049, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/049
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    Cited by:

    1. Syed Kamran Abbas NAQVI* & Syed Faizan IFTIKHAR** & Asghar ALI**, 2019. "The Value of Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Characteristics of Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 29(2), pages 291-311.
    2. Bogdan Andrei DUMITRESCU, 2015. "The Fiscal Consolidation Consequences On Economic Growth In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 136-151, September.
    3. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović, 2017. "The effectiveness of fiscal spending in Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia: the role of trade openness and public debt level," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 336-358, July.
    4. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    5. Borislava Mircheva & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2015. "Spillovers in the Nordic Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/070, International Monetary Fund.
    6. LEONIDA, Ionel, 2018. "The Conceptual, Methodological, And Empirical Aspects Regarding Budgetary Multipliers," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 6(1), pages 63-71, October.
    7. Voinescu Ioan-Vlad, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in Romania," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 10(1), pages 026-046, June.
    8. World Bank, 2015. "Bulgaria Health Financing," World Bank Publications - Reports 22964, The World Bank Group.
    9. Ignat Ignatov, 2020. "The Choice Of An Approach To Fiscal Consolidation," Yearbook of the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria, vol. 18(1), pages 131-144, July.
    10. Jan Čapek & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2020. "We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 483-502, June.
    11. Milan Deskar Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović, 2015. "The size and determinants of fiscal multipliers in Western Balkans: comparing Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1510, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    12. Iulia ROȘOIU, 2019. "Fiscal Policy in Emerging Economies Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 20(3), pages 279-285, July.
    13. Goran Petrevski & Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy – the case of Macedonia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 805-821, November.
    14. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Ms. Pritha Mitra & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 2015/071, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    17. Nikolay PATONOV, 2016. "Fiscal Impacts On Output In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Albania," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 63(2), pages 161-169, July.
    18. Ionel LEONIDA, 2019. "Influences Of Institutional Factors On The Dimension Of Fiscal And Budgetary Multipliers In Romania For The Period 2006 – 2017," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 4(3), pages 47-53.
    19. Patonov Nikolay, 2016. "Fiscal Impacts on Output in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Albania," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 161-169, June.
    20. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.
    21. Iana Paliova & Mr. Tonny Lybek, 2014. "Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!," IMF Working Papers 2014/021, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Alina BOBAŞU & Bogdan MURARAȘU, 2021. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a DSGE Model for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-21, June.
    23. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Antonio David & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2018/142, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.

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