IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201922.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

VC - A method for estimating time-varying coefficients in linear models

Author

Listed:
  • Schlicht, Ekkehart

Abstract

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. This estimator does not require that disturbances are normally distributed, but if they are, the proposed estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2019. "VC - A method for estimating time-varying coefficients in linear models," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2019-22
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/194874/1/1662969910.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Christian Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2008. "Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, number 978-3-540-72542-8, March.
    2. Boris Cournède & Rudiger Ahrend & Robert Price, 2008. "Have Long-term Financial Trends Changed the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 634, OECD Publishing.
    3. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    4. Paul Conway & Richard Herd & Thomas Chalaux, 2010. "Reforming China's Monetary Policy Framework to Meet Domestic Objectives," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 822, OECD Publishing.
    5. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    6. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 248-256, May.
    7. J. Tinbergen., 2007. "On a Method of Statistical Business-Cycle Research. A Reply," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    8. Theo Dijkstra, 1995. "Pyrrho's lemma, or have it your way," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 119-125, December.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2014. "Financial development, fiscal policy and volatility: Their effects on growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 223-266, March.
    11. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-371, June.
    12. Furceri Davide & Jalles João Tovar, 2019. "Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, January.
    13. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Drechsel, Thomas, 2021. "Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and reducing misspecification in empirical macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 258-277.
    14. Schlicht, Ekkehart & Pauly, Ralf, 1982. "Descriptive Seasonal Adjustment by Minimizing Perturbations," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 16, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    15. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira, 2009. "Testing credibility with time-varying coefficients," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1813-1817.
    17. Juhani Rouhiainen, 1978. "The problem of changing parameters in demand analysis and forecasting," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 5(3-4), pages 349-359.
    18. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1981. "A Seasonal Adjustment Principle and a Seasonal Adjustment Method Derived From this Principle," Munich Reprints in Economics 3374, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    19. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Sovereign Debt Effects and Composition: Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/03, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Boris Cournède & Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 520, OECD Publishing.
    21. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2017. "China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 413-429, July.
    22. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11047 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, February.
    25. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.
    26. Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), 2011. "Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14064.
    27. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    28. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 427-451, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    2. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    3. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    5. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    6. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
    7. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    8. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2015. "Asymmetric impacts of the determinants of energy intensity in Nigeria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 570-580.
    9. Ingco, Merlinda D. & Manderscheid, Lester V., 1988. "Modelling Parameter Variation in Econometric Models: A Handbook," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201375, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    10. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Grundlagen der ökonomischen Analyse," Monographs in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 25821, November.
    12. Yariv, Leeat & Jackson, Matthew O., 2018. "The Non-Existence of Representative Agents," CEPR Discussion Papers 13397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    14. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    15. Freebairn, John W. & Rausser, Gordon C., 1974. "Updating Parameter Estimates: A Least Squares Approach with an Application to the Inventory of Beef Cows," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(02), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Elvio Accinelli & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2007. "Modelos económicos con múltiples regímenes," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 1(2), pages 96-115.
    19. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Tryphon Kollintzas, 1986. "Tax Policy under Nongeometric Physical Depreciation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 263-288, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    time-series analysis; linear model; state-space estimation; time-varying coefficients; moments estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.