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Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space

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  • Mr. Seok G Park

Abstract

This paper quantitatively investigates how population aging trend affects fiscal space measured as unused revenue generating capacity by utilizing a standard neoclassical growth model. A calibration exercise for G-7 countries shows that France, Germany and Italy suffer greater revenue impact from a given reduction in hours worked due to their larger government expenditure. Corrective measures such as pension reform and flexible expenditure policy would be required in order to mitigate the impact of aging on fiscal space.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Seok G Park, 2012. "Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space," IMF Working Papers 2012/164, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-115.
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    4. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    5. Ms. Joana Pereira & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Ms. Anita Tuladhar, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2010/297, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Nicole Maestas & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2010. "How Longer Work Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    7. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Christine Ma & Chung Tran, 2016. "Fiscal Space under Demographic Shift," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-642, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Ioana-Laura Țibulcă, 2021. "Debt Sustainability: Can EU Member States Use Environmental Taxes to Regain Fiscal Space?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Süleyman KASAL & Özay ÖZPENÇE, 2020. "A Fiscal Space Analysis In Terms Of Turkey’s Domestic Debt," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(43).
    5. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    6. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Jean-François Brun, 2020. "Tax reform and fiscal space in developing countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 237-265, June.
    7. Jun Ho Seok & Hanpil Moon & GwanSeon Kim & Michael R. Reed, 2018. "Is Aging the Important Factor for Sustainable Agricultural Development in Korea? Evidence from the Relationship between Aging and Farm Technical Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Nerlich, Carolin & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "Fiscal rules, fiscal space and procyclical fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1872, European Central Bank.
    9. Carolin Nerlich & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2016. "Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space, and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(4), pages 421-452, December.
    10. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "De Facto Fiscal Space in Donor-countries and Their Aid Supply: To What Extent is Trade-related Aid Supply Affected?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, June.

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    Keywords

    WP; tax rate; Laffer curve;
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