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Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector

Author

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  • Mr. Marcos R Souto
  • Mr. Rodolphe Blavy

Abstract

The credit risk measures we develop in this paper are used to investigate macrofinancial linkages in the Mexican banking system. Domestic and external macro-financial variables are found to be closely associated with banking soundness. At the aggregate level, high external volatility and domestic interest rates are associated with higher expected default probability. Though results vary substantially across individual banks, domestic activity and U.S. growth, and higher asset prices, are generally associated with lower credit risks, while increased volatility worsens credit risks. The expected default probability is also found to be a leading indicator of traditional financial stability indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marcos R Souto & Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2009. "Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector," IMF Working Papers 2009/109, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Marcos Souto & Lisandro Abrego, 2008. "The Colombian banking sector - a contingent claims analysis," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    4. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Mexico: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/054, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2011. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 1, pages 001-010, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    4. Xisong Jin, 2018. "How much does book value data tell us about systemic risk and its interactions with the macroeconomy? A Luxembourg empirical evaluation," BCL working papers 118, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Gulcan Yildirim Gungor & Tuba Pelin Sumer, 2020. "Alternative Approaches for Modelling Corporate Sector Credit Risk," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2017, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    7. Roland Beck & Petr Jakubik & Anamaria Piloiu, 2015. "Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 525-550, July.
    8. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2014. "A framework for tracking changes in the intensity of investment funds' systemic risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 343-368.
    9. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    10. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Silva, Thiago C. & Guerra, Solange M., 2015. "Insolvency and contagion in the Brazilian interbank market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 431(C), pages 140-151.
    11. Xisong Jin, 2024. "Decomposing systemic risk measures by bank business model in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 182, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

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