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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Juillard
  • Charles Freedman
  • Dmitry Korshunov
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
  • Ioan Carabenciov
  • Igor Ermolaev
  • Jared Laxton

Abstract

This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/280, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Micko & Alexander Karsay & Zuzana Mucka & Lucia Sramkova, 2023. "Closer to Finding Yeti," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2023, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    2. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
    3. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo.
    4. Mansur, Alfan, 2017. "Memantau Risiko Makro Finansial di dalam Perekonomian Indonesia [Surveillance on the Macro-financial Risks of Indonesia's Economy]," MPRA Paper 93752, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2018.
    5. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    6. Angelini, Elena & Bokan, Nikola & Christoffel, Kai & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Introducing ECB-BASE: The blueprint of the new ECB semi-structural model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2315, European Central Bank.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Alice, Albonico & Roberta, Cardani & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2017. "Debunking the Myth of Southern Profligacy. A DSGE Analysis of Business Cycles in the EMU’s Big Four," Working Papers 373, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2018.
    9. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1461-1472.
    11. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    12. Mr. Maurice Obstfeld & Kevin Clinton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ms. Yulia Ustyugova & Hou Wang, 2016. "How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2016/192, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Copaciu, Mihai & Nalban, Valeriu & Bulete, Cristian, 2015. "R.E.M. 2.0, An estimated DSGE model for Romania," Dynare Working Papers 48, CEPREMAP.
    14. Ricardo Cervantes & Mr. Phakawa Jeasakul & Joseph Maloney & Ms. Li L Ong, 2014. "Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2014/099, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2016. "Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-70.
    16. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Hostland & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/256, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
    18. Elmer Sánchez León, 2016. "Mortgage Credit: Lending and Borrowing Constraints in a DSGE Framework," IHEID Working Papers 15-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Elmer Sánchez León, 2018. "Mortgage Credit: Lending and Borrowing Constraints in a DSGE Model," Working Papers 125, Peruvian Economic Association.
    20. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2013. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate and evaluating policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    21. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Interest rate rules and inflation risks in a macro‐finance model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 416-440, September.
    22. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 2013/087, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Shaun de Jager & Michael Johnston & Rudi Steinbach, 2015. "A Revised Quarterly Projection Model for South Africa," Working Papers 6839, South African Reserve Bank.
    24. Ruperto MAJUCA, 2013. "Managing Economic Shocks and Macroeconomic Coordination in an Integrated Region: ASEAN Beyond 2015," Working Papers DP-2013-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    25. Balázs Krusper & Katalin Szilágyi, 2013. "How can an interest rate rule reflect real economic considerations?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(2), pages 43-50, May.

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