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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jared Laxton
  • Igor Ermolaev
  • Charles Freedman
  • Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
  • Michel Juillard
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Ioan Carabenciov
  • Dmitry Korshunov

Abstract

This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2008/279, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/279
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    11. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 2008/278, International Monetary Fund.
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