Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006.
"The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
- Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996.
"The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," Working Papers 94-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009.
"Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
- Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2007. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/182, International Monetary Fund.
- Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
- Christina D. Romer, 1993. "The Nation in Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 19-39, Spring.
- Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 2008/278, International Monetary Fund.
- Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003.
"Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
- Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clinton P. McCully & Brian C. Moyer & Kenneth J. Stewart, 2007. "A Reconciliation between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index," BEA Papers 0079, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
- Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Gauging Risks for Deflation," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/001, International Monetary Fund.
- Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 217-235.
- Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2004. "Evaluating Threshold Effects in Consumer Sentiment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 942-952, April.
- Jörg Decressin & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Gauging Risks for Deflation," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/01, International Monetary Fund.
- Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
- Greasley, David & Madsen, Jakob B. & Oxley, Les, 2001. "Income Uncertainty and Consumer Spending during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 225-251, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
- Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2015/132, International Monetary Fund.
- Kevin Clinton & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Marianne Johnson & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton, 2010.
"International Deflation Risks under Alternative Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Chapters, in: Sticky Prices and Inflation Dynamics (NBER-TCER-CEPR), pages 140-177,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clinton, Kevin & Garcia-Saltos, Roberto & Johnson, Marianne & Kamenik, Ondrej & Laxton, Douglas, 2010. "International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 140-177, June.
- Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Rahul Anand & Yaroslav Hul, 2019. "Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 2019/229, International Monetary Fund.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011.
"Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
- Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2008/279, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2009/085, International Monetary Fund.
- Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/280, International Monetary Fund.
- Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014.
"Anxious periods and bank lending,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
- Georgios Kouretas & Manthos D. Delis & Christos Tsoumas, 2011. "Anxious periods and bank lending," EcoMod2011 3032, EcoMod.
- Delis, Manthos D & Kouretas, Georgios & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Anxious periods and bank lending," MPRA Paper 32422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013.
"Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
- Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-154/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Nov 2011.
- Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Massa, Massimo & Zhang, Lei, 2015. "Bank Credit Tightening, Debt Market Frictions and Corporate Yield Spreads," CEPR Discussion Papers 10537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 2008/278, International Monetary Fund.
- de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
- Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002.
"Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model,"
NIPE Working Papers
1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Pedro Bacao & Fernando Alexandre, 2003. "Equity Prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 290, Society for Computational Economics.
- Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
- Charles Freedman & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir, 2010. "Policies to Rebalance the Global Economy After the Financial Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 215-252, March.
- Wilson, Linus, 2023. "Profitable timing of the stock market with the senior loan officer survey," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 2013/087, International Monetary Fund.
- Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2011. "Firm entry, credit availability and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1245-1272, August.
- Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012.
"Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
- Wieland, Volker & Taylor, John B., 2010. "Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new model database," Working Paper Series 1261, European Central Bank.
- Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2012. "Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new model database," IMFS Working Paper Series 66, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h560mit97 is not listed on IDEAS
- Livio Di Matteo & Angela Redish, 2015.
"The evolution of financial intermediation: Evidence from 19th-century Ontario microdata,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 963-987, August.
- Livio Di Matteo & Angela Redish, 2015. "The evolution of financial intermediation: Evidence from 19th‐century Ontario microdata," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 963-987, August.
- Xu, T.T., 2012.
"The role of credit in international business cycles,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- TengTeng Xu, 2012. "The Role of Credit in International Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 12-36, Bank of Canada.
More about this item
Keywords
WP; confidence interval; interest rate;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.