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Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Eyal Argov
  • David Rose
  • Mr. Philippe D Karam
  • Mr. Natan P. Epstein
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton

Abstract

This paper extends a small linear model of the Israeli economy to allow for nonlinearities in the inflation-output process that arise from convexity in the Phillips curve and endogenous monetary policy credibility. We find that the dynamic responses to shocks in the extended model more closely resemble features in the data from the period 2001?03. In particular, the extended model does a much better job in accounting for the deterioration in monetary policy credibility and the output costs of regaining monetary policy credibility once it has been lost.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyal Argov & David Rose & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 2007/207, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/207
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
    2. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    4. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 369-397, May.
    5. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Expectations, and Credibility in a Model of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2003-34, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
    7. Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/220, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Israel: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/121, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
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    WP; exchange rate;

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