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Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?

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  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  • Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

Abstract

Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, 2008. "Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?," IMF Working Papers 2008/137, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/137
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Machado, Roberto & Zuloeta, José, 2012. "The Impact of the Business Cycle on Elasticities of Tax Revenue in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4064, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2013. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 117-173, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Juan Carlos Gómez-Sabaini & Bruno Martorano, 2011. "A New Fiscal Pact, Tax Policy Changes and Income Inequality: Latin America During the Last Decade," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-070, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Ardanaz, Martín & Corbacho, Ana & Gonzales, Alberto & Tolsa Caballero, Nuria, 2015. "Structural Fiscal Balances in Latin America and the Caribbean: New Dataset and Estimations," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6989, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Valdivia, Daney, 2014. "Posición fiscal, monetaria y control de la brecha inflacionaria y del producto: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia [Fiscal - monetary stance and inflation - output gap control: evidence for Bolivia]," MPRA Paper 60713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Enrique Alberola & Iván Kataryniuk & Ángel Melguizo & René Orozco, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 101-116, November.
    9. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Valdivia, Daney & Loayza, Lilian, 2012. "Transformación económica desde la óptica fiscal. ¿Puede existir un equilibrio entre el corto, mediano y largo plazo para fomentar el desarrollo? [Fiscal view of economic transformation: Can exist a," MPRA Paper 43087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Guyana: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/293, International Monetary Fund.
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    13. Rolando Ossowski & Havard Halland, 2016. "Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24577.
    14. Eduardo Fernández‐Arias & Peter Montiel, 2011. "The Great Recession, “Rainy Day” Funds, And Countercyclical Fiscal Policy In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 304-322, July.
    15. Christian Daude & Ángel Melguizo & Alejandro Neut, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and Sustainable at Last?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 291, OECD Publishing.
    16. Martín Ardanaz & Ana Corbacho & Alberto Gonzales & Nuria Tolsa Caballero, 2015. "Structural Fiscal Balances in Latin America and the Caribbean: New Dataset and Estimations," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 89816, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Juan Carlos Gómez-Sabaini & Bruno Martorano, 2012. "A New Fiscal Pact, Tax Policy Changes and Income Inequality," Working Papers - Economics wp2012_03.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    18. Garry, Stefanie & Rivas Valdivia, Juan Carlos, 2017. "An analysis of the contribution of public expenditure to economic growth and fiscal multipliers in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic, 1990-2015," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 42062, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2010. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: better after all?," Economics Discussion Papers 2010-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2011. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    21. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Martorano, Bruno, 2011. "A New Fiscal Pact, Tax Policy Changes and Income Inequality," WIDER Working Paper Series 070, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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