IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/econwp/201605.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wage divergence, business cylce co-movement and the currency union effect

Author

Listed:
  • Gächter, Martin
  • Gruber, Alexander
  • Riedl, Aleksandra

Abstract

The European debt crisis reminded us that some member countries of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) experienced unsustainable pre-crisis booms accompanied by an increase in wages far beyond what would have been justified by long-lasting trends in labor productivity. Within a currency union, such diverging trends in wages and competitiveness cannot be mitigated by simply adjusting nominal exchange rates. Against this background, it is astonishing that the impact of labor cost dynamics on business cycle co-movement – the most widely used meta-criterion for an optimum currency area – has not been analyzed so far. In our empirical analysis, we reveal a highly significant and policy-relevant finding: While wage developments do not affect business cycle convergence outside a currency union, wage growth differentials across countries significantly reduce business cycle co-movement within a common currency area. The economic significance of the effect is surprisingly large and even exceeds the impact of bilateral trade relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gächter, Martin & Gruber, Alexander & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2016. "Wage divergence, business cylce co-movement and the currency union effect," Economics Working Paper Series 1605, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2016:05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-1605.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Martin Hellwig, 2011. "Quo vadis, Euroland? European Monetary Union between Crisis and Reform," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2011_12, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    3. Pedro Cerqueira, 2013. "A closer look at the world business cycle synchronization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 349-363, September.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?," CEPS Papers 6865, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    7. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    8. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Silgoner, Maria A. & Ramskogler, Paul, 2016. "Trade in value added: Do we need new measures of competitiveness?," Discussion Papers 52/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Alison Johnston & Aidan Regan, 2016. "European Monetary Integration and the Incompatibility of National Varieties of Capitalism," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 318-336, March.
    10. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    11. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    12. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?—A Panel Data Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 318-332, March.
    13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    14. Lane, Philip, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 9493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank.
    16. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    17. ,, 2009. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 8, number 9780199563234.
    18. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    19. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    20. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    21. Johnston, Alison & Regan, Aidan, 2014. "European integration and the incompatibility of national varieties of capitalism problems with institutional divergence in a monetary union," MPIfG Discussion Paper 14/15, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    22. Masson,Paul R. & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1993. "Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434553, October.
    23. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    24. Mr. Anthony M Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe’s Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 2006/116, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Gächter, Martin & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2018. "The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 284-304.
    26. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    27. Bellak, Christian & Leibrecht, Markus & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2008. "Labour costs and FDI flows into Central and Eastern European Countries: A survey of the literature and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 17-37, March.
    28. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    29. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-488, September.
    30. Cerqueira, Pedro André & Martins, Rodrigo, 2009. "Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 106-108, February.
    31. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
    32. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    33. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
    34. Christian Keuschnigg, 2012. "Should Europe Become a Fiscal Union?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(01), pages 35-43, April.
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. André Sapir & Guntram B. Wolff, 2015. "Euro-area governance- what to reform and how to do it," Policy Briefs 870, Bruegel.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramskogler, Paul, 2021. "Labour market hierarchies and the macro-economy – Do labour market dualities affect wage growth in Europe?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 154-165.
    2. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2020. "Fiscal policy, government size and EMU business cycle synchronization," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 201-222, May.
    3. Gächter, Martin & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2018. "The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 284-304.
    4. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2017. "Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 130-144.
    5. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Working Papers hal-04159759, HAL.
    6. Loewald, Christopher & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2019. "Do monetary unions dream of structural reforms?," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 01/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    7. Nestor Azcona, 2019. "Specialization and Business Cycle Co-Movement in the Euro Area," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 193-204, June.
    8. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    10. Horatiu DAN, 2019. "Joining The Euro Zone – An Exploration Of Real And Structural Convergence In Romania, Bulgaria And Croatia," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 1 Year 20, pages 19-32.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    3. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, April.
    4. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2020. "Fiscal policy, government size and EMU business cycle synchronization," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 201-222, May.
    5. Antje Hildebrandt & Isabella Moder, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization between the Western Balkans and the European Union," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-25.
    6. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    8. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2019. "Trade, Industrial Dissimilarity, FDI and Business Cycle Co-movements: EC3SLS Evidence from Eurozone Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 327-359, August.
    9. Pedro André Cerqueira, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Volatility Shifts," GEMF Working Papers 2014-19, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2020. "Business cycle synchronization: Disentangling direct and indirect effect of financial integration in the Indian context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 272-287.
    11. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    13. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    14. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156, April.
    15. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.
    16. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.
    17. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    18. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    19. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    20. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle Synchronization; Unit Labor Costs; Competitiveness; Currency Union; Optimum Currency Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2016:05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vwasgch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.