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Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?

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  • Daude, Christian
  • Melguizo, Ángel
  • Neut, Alejandro

Abstract

This paper analyses fiscal policy for several economies in Latin America, from the early nineties to the 2009 crisis. We present original estimates of cyclically-adjusted public revenues for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay implementing the standardised OECD methodology and extending it to include commodity cycles, which have a direct and significant effect on the fiscal balance of several Latin American countries. Based on these estimates, we evaluate the size of automatic tax stabilisers and the cyclicality of discretionary fiscal policy. Additionally, we highlight the uncertainty stemming from the estimation of the output gap, due to large and simultaneous cyclical, temporary and permanent shocks in several Latin American economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2011. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201114
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2011-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrhart Christophe & Matthieu Llorca, 2017. "Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Latin America Countries: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2292-2300.
    2. Serhan Cevik & Vibha Nanda, 2020. "Riding the storm: fiscal sustainability in the Caribbean," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 384-399, May.
    3. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Umut UNAL, 2015. "Rethinking The Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Disaggregated Svar Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 120-135, September.
    5. repec:ilo:ilowps:488131 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. -, 2018. "Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018: public policy challenges in the framework of the 2030 Agenda," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 43406 edited by Eclac, May.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    10. H. Xavier Jara & Lourdes Montesdeoca & Iva Tasseva, 2022. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers and Emergency Tax–Benefit Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Ecuador," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 2787-2809, December.
    11. Mr. Alexander D Klemm, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/059, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ray, Nikhil. & Velasquez, Agustin. & Islam, Iyanatul,, 2015. "Fiscal rules, growth and employment : a developing country perspective," ILO Working Papers 994881313402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Enrique Alberola & Iván Kataryniuk & Ángel Melguizo & René Orozco, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 101-116, April.
    14. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Ahmad Al-Saraireh & Hassan Alamro, 2018. "Interaction Between Fiscal Policy and Economic Fluctuation: A Case Study for Jordan," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 107-111.
    15. Ivanyna, Maksym & von Haldenwang, Christian, 2012. "A comparative view on the tax performance of developing countries: Regional patterns, non-tax revenue and governance," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-44.
    16. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2013. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 117-173, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro & González Vergara, Reyna, 2015. "Cambios institucionales y transición cíclica en la posición fiscal para Bolivia (2003-2011)," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 23, pages 67-96, Mayo.
    18. Xavier Jara & Lourdes Montesdeoca & Iva V. Tasseva, 2021. "The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax-benefit policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-4, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; business cycle; public finances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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