IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/cemmap/35-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identi?cation and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices

Author

Listed:
  • Yingyao Hu

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Johns Hopkins University)

  • Yi Xin

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

This paper develops identi?cation and estimation methods for dynamic structural models when agents’ actions are unobserved by econometricians. We provide conditions under which choice probabilities and latent state transition rules are nonparametrically identi?ed with a continuous state variable in a single-agent dynamic discrete choice model. Our identi?cation results extend to (1) models with serially correlated unobserved heterogeneity and continuous choices, (2) cases in which only discrete state variables are available, and (3) dynamic discrete games. We apply our method to study moral hazard problems in US gubernatorial elections. We ?nd that the probabilities of shirking increase as the governors approach the end of their terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Yingyao Hu & Yi Xin, 2019. "Identi?cation and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:35/19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/CW3519_Identification_and_Estimation_of_Dynamic_Structural_Models_with_Unobserved_Choices.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. An, Yonghong & Hu, Yingyao & Xiao, Ruli, 2021. "Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 645-675.
    3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2002. "Swapping the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm: A Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1519-1543, July.
    4. Sanjog Misra & Harikesh Nair, 2011. "A structural model of sales-force compensation dynamics: Estimation and field implementation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 211-257, September.
    5. Victor Aguirregabiria, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308.
    6. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
    7. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    8. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1995. "Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 769-798.
    9. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
    10. Chen, Xiaohong & Hu, Yingyao & Lewbel, Arthur, 2008. "A note on the closed-form identification of regression models with a mismeasured binary regressor," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(12), pages 1473-1479, September.
    11. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2010. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: An Application to Retirement Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 201-218.
    12. Yingyao Hu & Susanne M. Schennach, 2008. "Instrumental Variable Treatment of Nonclassical Measurement Error Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(1), pages 195-216, January.
    13. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    14. Christopher Timmins, 2002. "Measuring the Dynamic Efficiency Costs of Regulators' Preferences: Municipal Water Utilities in the Arid West," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 603-629, March.
    15. Raymond Carroll & Xiaohong Chen & Yingyao Hu, 2010. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 379-399.
    16. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, June.
    17. Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
    18. Isabelle Perrigne & Quang Vuong, 2011. "Nonparametric Identification of a Contract Model With Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1499-1539, September.
    19. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira & Hernan Roman, 2007. "An Estimate Dynamic Model of Entry, Exit, and Growth in Oligopoly Retail Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 449-454, May.
    20. Andriy Norets & Xun Tang, 2010. "Semiparametric Inference in Dynamic Binary Choice Models, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 17 Apr 2012.
    21. Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Large Sample Sieve Estimation of Semi-Nonparametric Models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 76, Elsevier.
    22. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer & Yuya Takahashi, 2016. "Pooling data across markets in dynamic Markov games," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 523-559, July.
    23. Yuya Takahashi, 2015. "Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the US Movie Theater Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2204-2241, July.
    24. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2009. "Nonparametric Identification of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 135-175, January.
    25. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
    26. Han Hong, 2010. "Comment for identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors, by Carroll, Chen and Hu," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 405-408.
    27. Holger Sieg & Chamna Yoon, 2017. "Estimating Dynamic Games of Electoral Competition to Evaluate Term Limits in US Gubernatorial Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1824-1857, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doug J. Chung & Byungyeon Kim & Byoung G. Park, 2021. "The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7046-7074, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Nonlinear Panel Data Methods for Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 471-496, September.
    2. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
    3. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul & Souza-Rodrigues, Edouardo, 2015. "Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use," TSE Working Papers 15-596, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Hu, Yingyao, 2017. "The Econometrics of Unobservables -- Latent Variable and Measurement Error Models and Their Applications in Empirical Industrial Organization and Labor Economics [The Econometrics of Unobservables]," Economics Working Paper Archive 64578, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    5. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    6. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2018. "Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 25134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2015. "Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 21527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2018. "Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13240, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Otero, Karina V., 2016. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic multinomial choice games: unknown payoffs and shocks without interchangeability," MPRA Paper 86784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hu Yingyao & Shum Matthew & Tan Wei & Xiao Ruli, 2017. "A Simple Estimator for Dynamic Models with Serially Correlated Unobservables," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-596, May.
    12. Arcidiacono, Peter & Miller, Robert A., 2020. "Identifying dynamic discrete choice models off short panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 473-485.
    13. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2021. "Linear IV regression estimators for structural dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 778-804.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7svo6civd6959qvmn4965cth1d is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Nonlinear Panel Data Methods for Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Models," Working Papers wp2018_1703, CEMFI.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7svo6civd6959qvmn4965cth1d is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza‐Rodrigues, 2021. "Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 351-403, May.
    20. Sasaki, Yuya & Takahashi, Yuya & Xin, Yi & Hu, Yingyao, 2023. "Dynamic discrete choice models with incomplete data: Sharp identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    21. Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    22. An, Yonghong & Hu, Yingyao & Xiao, Ruli, 2021. "Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 645-675.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:35/19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmifsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.