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Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions

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  • Hanming Fang

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Yang Wang

    (Department of Economics, Lafayette College)

Abstract

We extend the semi-parametric estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller’s (1993) conditional choice probability (CCP) approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We illustrate the proposed estimation method with an empirical application of adult women’s decisions to undertake mammography to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the under-utilization of this preventive health care. Our results show evidence for both present bias and naivety.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2010. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-033, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:10-033
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    2. Evgeny Yakovlev, 2012. "Peers and Alcohol: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0182, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," Papers 2109.01725, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    4. Theresa Kuchler, 2013. "Sticking to Your Plan: Hyperbolic Discounting and Credit Card Debt Paydown," Discussion Papers 12-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Nicolas Bouckaert & Erik Schokkaert, 2016. "Differing types of medical prevention appeal to different individuals," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(3), pages 317-337, April.
    6. Evgeny Yakovlev, 2016. "Demand for Alcohol Consumption and Implication for Mortality: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0221, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    7. Ansgar Wübker, 2014. "Explaining variations in breast cancer screening across European countries," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(5), pages 497-514, June.
    8. Bart COCKX & Corinna GHIRELLI & Bruno VAN DER LINDEN, 2013. "Monitoring Job Search Effort with Hyperbolic Time Preferences and Non-Compliance: A Welfare Analysis," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2013006, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    9. Gautier, Pieter A. & van Vuuren, Aico, 2011. "A Flexible Test for Present Bias and Time Preferences Using Land-Lease Contracts," IZA Discussion Papers 5821, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Humphreys, Brad & Ruseski, Jane & Zhou, Li, 2015. "Physical Activity, Present Bias, and Habit Formation: Theory and Evidence from Longitudinal Data," Working Papers 2015-6, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. Aycinena, Diego & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Rentschler, Lucas & Sprenger, Charles, 2022. "Intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 484-500.
    12. Taisuke Imai & Tom A Rutter & Colin F Camerer, 2021. "Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1788-1814.
    13. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2012. "Policy effects in hyperbolic vs. exponential models of consumption and retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 465-473.
    14. Robin S. Lee, 2013. "Vertical Integration and Exclusivity in Platform and Two-Sided Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2960-3000, December.
    15. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Invited Paper ---Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges, and New Developments," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 913-938, November.
    16. Han Bleichrodt & Rogier J. D. Potter van Loon & Drazen Prelec, 2022. "Beta-Delta or Delta-Tau? A Reformulation of Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6326-6335, August.
    17. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna & Van der Linden, Bruno, 2014. "Is it socially efficient to impose job search requirements on unemployed benefit claimants with hyperbolic preferences?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 80-95.
    18. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments," Economics Papers 2013-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    19. Doug J. Chung & Byungyeon Kim & Byoung G. Park, 2021. "The Comprehensive Effects of Sales Force Management: A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Selection, Compensation, and Training," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7046-7074, November.
    20. Peter Spittal, 2022. "Benefit Salience and Labour Supply," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 22/764, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    21. Hong, Han & Li, Weiming & Wang, Boyu, 2015. "Estimation of dynamic discrete models from time aggregated data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 435-446.
    22. Aniko Biro;, 2012. "An analysis of mammography decisions with a focus on educational differences," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 12/11, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    23. Chao Wang & Stefan Weiergraeber & Ruli Xiao, 2022. "Identification of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting Using a Terminating Action," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-010 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    24. Shuo Zhang & Tat Y. Chan & Xueming Luo & Xiaoyi Wang, 2022. "Time-Inconsistent Preferences and Strategic Self-Control in Digital Content Consumption," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 616-636, May.
    25. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Discount Rates And The Education Gradient In Mammography In The Uk," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(9), pages 1021-1036, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time Inconsistent Preferences; Intrapersonal Games; Dynamic Discrete Choices; Preventive Care;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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