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Identification and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices

Author

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  • Hu, Yingyao
  • Xin, Yi

Abstract

This paper develops identification and estimation methods for dynamic discrete choice models when agents’ actions are unobserved by econometricians. We provide conditions under which choice probabilities and latent state transition rules are nonparametrically identified with a continuous state variable in a single-agent dynamic discrete choice model. Our identification strategy from the baseline model can extend to models with serially correlated unobserved heterogeneity, cases in which choices are partially unavailable, and dynamic discrete games. We propose a sieve maximum likelihood estimator for primitives in agents’ utility functions and state transition rules. Monte Carlo simulation results support the validity of the proposed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Yingyao & Xin, Yi, 2024. "Identification and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 242(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:242:y:2024:i:2:s0304407624001520
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105806
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    Keywords

    Dynamic discrete choice; Unobserved choice; Unobserved heterogeneity; Dynamic discrete game; Nonparametric identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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