IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v236y2023i1s0304407623001550.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic discrete choice models with incomplete data: Sharp identification

Author

Listed:
  • Sasaki, Yuya
  • Takahashi, Yuya
  • Xin, Yi
  • Hu, Yingyao

Abstract

In many empirical studies, those states that are relevant for forward-looking economic agents to make decisions may not be included in the data to which researchers have access. This problem often arises in the context of declining/booming industries. In this paper, we develop the sharp identified sets of structural parameters and counterfactuals for dynamic discrete choice models when empirical data do not cover realizations of relevant future states. Applying the proposed method to the annual Toyo Keizai database, we study the behaviors of Japanese firms on foreign direct investments in China without observing the future states after Chinese economy slows down.

Suggested Citation

  • Sasaki, Yuya & Takahashi, Yuya & Xin, Yi & Hu, Yingyao, 2023. "Dynamic discrete choice models with incomplete data: Sharp identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:236:y:2023:i:1:s0304407623001550
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407623001550
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Song, Kyungchul, 2014. "Point Decisions For Interval–Identified Parameters," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 334-356, April.
    2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    3. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2009. "Validity Of Subsampling And “Plug-In Asymptotic” Inference For Parameters Defined By Moment Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 669-709, June.
    4. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 609-666, March.
    5. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller & Seth Sanders & Jeffrey Smith, 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 265-289.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2002. "Swapping the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm: A Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1519-1543, July.
    7. Tamer, Elie, 2010. "Partial Identification in Econometrics," Scholarly Articles 34728615, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer & Yuya Sasaki & Yuya Takahashi, 2022. "Estimation Of (Static Or Dynamic) Games Under Equilibrium Multiplicity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1165-1188, August.
    9. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
    10. Armstrong, Timothy B., 2014. "Weighted KS statistics for inference on conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 92-116.
    11. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    12. Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
    13. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
    14. Mitsuru Igami, 2017. "Estimating the Innovator’s Dilemma: Structural Analysis of Creative Destruction in the Hard Disk Drive Industry, 1981–1998," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 798-847.
    15. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2014. "A Practical Two‐Step Method for Testing Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1979-2002, September.
    16. Steven T Berry & Giovanni Compiani, 2023. "An Instrumental Variable Approach to Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1724-1758.
    17. Jaap H. Abbring & Øystein Daljord, 2020. "Identifying the discount factor in dynamic discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 471-501, May.
    18. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2012. "Sequential Estimation of Structural Models With a Fixed Point Constraint," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2303-2319, September.
    19. Sasaki, Yuya, 2015. "Heterogeneity and selection in dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 236-249.
    20. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Shi, Xiaoxia, 2014. "Nonparametric inference based on conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 31-45.
    21. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Yuichi Kitamura & Lucas Lima & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2020. "Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals," Working Papers tecipa-655, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    22. Federico A. Bugni & Ivan A. Canay & Xiaoxia Shi, 2017. "Inference for subvectors and other functions of partially identified parameters in moment inequality models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, March.
    23. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Yuichi Kitamura & Lucas Lima & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2020. "Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2221, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    24. Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Elie Tamer, 2007. "Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1243-1284, September.
    25. Arie Beresteanu & Francesca Molinari, 2008. "Asymptotic Properties for a Class of Partially Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(4), pages 763-814, July.
    26. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Kitamura, Yuichi & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo & Lima, Lucas, 2020. "Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 14402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Peter Arcidiacono & Robert A. Miller, 2011. "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1823-1867, November.
    28. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Gu, Jiaying & Luo, Yao, 2021. "Sufficient statistics for unobserved heterogeneity in structural dynamic logit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 280-311.
    29. Rosen, Adam M., 2008. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 107-117, September.
    30. Xiaohong Chen & Elie Tamer & Alexander Torgovitsky, 2011. "Sensitivity Analysis in Semiparametric Likelihood Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1836, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    31. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1840rr is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Yuan Liao & Anna Simoni, 2016. "Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Convex Models: Is it Valid for Frequentist Inference?," Departmental Working Papers 201607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    33. Donald W. K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2010. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 119-157, January.
    34. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2010. "Inference for the Identified Set in Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 169-211, January.
    35. Canay, Ivan A., 2010. "EL inference for partially identified models: Large deviations optimality and bootstrap validity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 408-425, June.
    36. A. Norets & X. Tang, 2014. "Semiparametric Inference in Dynamic Binary Choice Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1229-1262.
    37. Donald W. K. Andrews & Panle Jia Barwick, 2012. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2805-2826, November.
    38. Hu, Yingyao & Sasaki, Yuya, 2018. "Closed-Form Identification Of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Proxies For Unobserved State Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 166-185, February.
    39. Jorg Stoye, 2009. "More on Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1299-1315, July.
    40. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Yuichi Kitamura & Lucas Lima & Eduardo A. Souza-Rodrigues, 2020. "Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals," NBER Working Papers 26761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Yuichi Kitamura & Lucas Lima & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2020. "Partial Identi?cation and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals," CeMMAP working papers CWP6/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    42. Fabio A. Miessi Sanches & Daniel Junior Silva & Sorawoot Srisuma, 2016. "Ordinary Least Squares Estimation Of A Dynamic Game Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 623-634, May.
    43. Yuya Takahashi, 2015. "Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the US Movie Theater Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2204-2241, July.
    44. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 755-782, March.
    45. Fabio A. Miessi Sanches & Daniel Junior Silva & Sorawoot Srisuma, 2016. "Ordinary Least Squares Estimation Of A Dynamic Game Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 623-634, May.
    46. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
    47. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2009. "Nonparametric Identification of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 135-175, January.
    48. Elie Tamer, 2010. "Partial Identification in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 167-195, September.
    49. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2021. "Linear IV regression estimators for structural dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 778-804.
    50. Buchholz, Nicholas & Shum, Matthew & Xu, Haiqing, 2021. "Semiparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 312-327.
    51. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
    52. Federico A. Bugni, 2010. "Bootstrap Inference in Partially Identified Models Defined by Moment Inequalities: Coverage of the Identified Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 735-753, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Elie Tamer, 2018. "Monte Carlo Confidence Sets for Identified Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1965-2018, November.
    3. Yuan Liao & Anna Simoni, 2012. "Semi-parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models based on Support Function," Papers 1212.3267, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
    4. Federico A. Bugni & Ivan A. Canay & Xiaoxia Shi, 2014. "Inference for functions of partially identified parameters in moment inequality models," CeMMAP working papers 22/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen & Keith O’Hara & Elie Tamer, 2016. "MCMC Confidence sets for Identified Sets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2037R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2016.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Keith O'Hara & Elie Tamer, 2016. "MCMC confidence sets for identified sets," CeMMAP working papers 28/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identification," Papers 2004.11751, arXiv.org.
    8. A. Norets & X. Tang, 2014. "Semiparametric Inference in Dynamic Binary Choice Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1229-1262.
    9. Christian Bontemps & Thierry Magnac, 2017. "Set Identification, Moment Restrictions, and Inference," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 103-129, September.
    10. Brendan Kline & Elie Tamer, 2016. "Bayesian inference in a class of partially identified models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 329-366, July.
    11. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Elie Tamer, 2017. "Monte Carlo confidence sets for identified sets," CeMMAP working papers 43/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Armstrong, Timothy B. & Chan, Hock Peng, 2016. "Multiscale adaptive inference on conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 24-43.
    13. Liao, Yuan & Simoni, Anna, 2019. "Bayesian inference for partially identified smooth convex models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 338-360.
    14. Wooyoung Kim & Koohyun Kwon & Soonwoo Kwon & Sokbae Lee, 2018. "The identification power of smoothness assumptions in models with counterfactual outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 617-642, July.
    15. Armstrong, Timothy B., 2015. "Asymptotically exact inference in conditional moment inequality models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 51-65.
    16. Hiroaki Kaido & Francesca Molinari & Jörg Stoye, 2019. "Confidence Intervals for Projections of Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1397-1432, July.
    17. Bugni, Federico A. & Canay, Ivan A. & Shi, Xiaoxia, 2015. "Specification tests for partially identified models defined by moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 259-282.
    18. Yuan Liao & Anna Simoni, 2016. "Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Convex Models: Is it Valid for Frequentist Inference?," Departmental Working Papers 201607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    19. Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2016. "Practical and theoretical advances in inference for partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers 05/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Steven T Berry & Giovanni Compiani, 2023. "An Instrumental Variable Approach to Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1724-1758.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic discrete choice; Incomplete data; Industry dynamics; Partial identification; Sharp identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:236:y:2023:i:1:s0304407623001550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.