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An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates

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  • Andrea Mervar
  • James E. Payne

    (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)

Abstract

Given that tourism is a significant source of export revenues for Croatia, it is vital for policymakers to understand the factors affecting foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations. This study provides long-run elasticity estimates associated with the aggregate foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations in the period 1994:1-2004:4 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Foreign tourism demand is proxied by the aggregate number of foreign overnight stays in Croatia. The long-run elasticity estimates indicate that tourism demand is positive and highly elastic with respect to the income of tourist-generating countries. Moreover, tourism demand is adversely affected by the political conflicts in the 1990s. The real exchange rate and transportation costs are not statistically significant determinants of foreign tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2007. "An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates," Working Papers 0701, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:iez:wpaper:0701
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    2. Andreja Benkovic & Juan Felipe Mejía, 2008. "Tourism as a driver of economic development: The Colombian experience," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10630, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. Fateh Habibi, 2015. "Iranian Tourism Demand for Malaysia: A Bound Test Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(1), pages 63-80, Winter.
    4. Constantinos Katrakilidis & George Konteos & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Chrysi Manolidou, 2017. "Investigation of Convergence in the Tourist Markets of Greece," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 707-729.
    5. James E. Payne & Andrea Mervar, 2010. "Research Note: The Tourism–Growth Nexus in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 1089-1094, December.
    6. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    7. Srdelić, Leonarda & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2024. "International trade and economic growth in Croatia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 240-258.
    8. Svetlana Gurieva & Irina Kuznetsova & Ekaterina Yumkina & Sergey Manichev & Elena Sidorenko, 2017. "Emotional Intelligence and Behavior Styles of Russian Middle Managers in Business Communication," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 679-693.
    9. Giovanni De Luca & Monica Rosciano, 2020. "Quantile Dependence in Tourism Demand Time Series: Evidence in the Southern Italy Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    11. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
    12. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
    13. Kokotovic, Filip, 2017. "Analysis Of A Maritime Versus A Landlocked Tourism Dependent Economy: Croatia And The Czech Republic," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 8(3), pages 319-328.
    14. Kristian Orsini & Vukašin Ostojić, 2018. "Croatia’s Tourism Industry: Beyond the Sun and Sea," European Economy - Economic Briefs 036, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Tanju Güdük, 2018. "The relationship between tourism revenues and financial ratios of enterprises in the Bist tourism: Panel Data Analysis," Prizren Social Science Journal, SHIKS, vol. 2(2), pages 35-42, December.
    16. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Arvind Patel & Nikeel Kumar & Selvin Prasad, 2016. "Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1085-1101, September.
    17. Chew Ging Lee, 2009. "Research Note: The Convergence Hypothesis for Tourism Markets: Evidence from Singapore," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 875-881, December.
    18. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2016. "Modeling the degree of persistence in Croatian tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 655-664, June.
    19. Habibi, Fateh & Abdul Rahim, Khalid & Chin, Lee, 2008. "United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 13590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Peter Josef Stauvermann & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2017. "Modeling economic growth with tourism for small open economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 1001-1018, November.
    21. Olugbenga A. Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2012. "Modelling International Tourism Demand for the Caribbean," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 159-180, February.
    22. Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Migration and Tourist Flows," MPRA Paper 34905, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Nov 2011.
    23. Schiff, Aaron & Becken, Susanne, 2011. "Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-575.
    24. Zdravko Šergo & Amorino Poropat & Pavlo Ružić, 2014. "The determinants of length of stay and arrivals of tourists in the Croatia: a panel data approach," Tourism and Hospitality Industry section8-4, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism demand; cointegration; ARDL; Croatia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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