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Modeling the degree of persistence in Croatian tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, Spain)

  • Andrea Mervar

    (The Institute of Economics, Croatia)

  • James E. Payne

    (Georgia College & State University, USA)

Abstract

The Croatian tourism sector has been affected by a number of negative and positive shocks since the beginning of the 1990s. To examine the impact of shocks on tourism, the authors employ fractional integration techniques as a means to gauge the degree of persistence of such shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1995 to December 2013, they find that the respective tourism indicators contain seasonal unit roots. An examination of the seasonally differenced tourism time series reveals that the fractional differencing parameter, d , with allowance for an autocorrelated error process, is strictly below 1, implying that shocks are transitory and disappear relatively quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2016. "Modeling the degree of persistence in Croatian tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 655-664, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:3:p:655-664
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2014.0457
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    2. Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2007. "Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    3. James E. Payne & Andrea Mervar, 2002. "A Note on Modelling Tourism Revenues in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 8(1), pages 103-109, March.
    4. J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Péarez de Gracia, 2005. "The Nature of Seasonality in Spanish Tourism Time Series," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 483-499, December.
    5. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Fernando Pérez de Gracia & Robert Mudida, 2013. "Persistence, long memory and seasonality in Kenyan tourism series," NCID Working Papers 05/2013, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    6. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
    7. J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. P Erez de Gracia, 2008. "Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks: Evidence from International Monthly Arrivals in the USA," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 13-23, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A Gil-Alana & James E Payne, 2022. "Persistence, seasonality, and fractional integration within a nonlinear framework: Evidence from US citizens’ overseas travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 654-660, May.
    2. Luis A Gil-Alana & à gueda Gil-López & Elena San Román, 2021. "Tourism persistence in Spain: National versus international visitors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 614-625, June.
    3. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    4. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    5. James E Payne & Luis A Gil-Alana, 2018. "Data measurement and the change in persistence of tourist arrivals to the United States in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 41-50, February.
    6. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.
    7. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.

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