IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/iujspc/v0y202i80451-473.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Kayıt Dışı İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Author

Listed:
  • Rümeysa Çelik

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi, İİBF Çalışma Ekonomisi ve Endüstri İlişkileri ölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)

  • Abdurrahman Keskin

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi, İİBF Çalışma Ekonomisi ve Endüstri İlişkileri Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)

  • Abdulkadir Keskin

    (İstanbul Medeniyet Üniversitesi, SBF İşletme Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Abstract

The globalization of the economy has caused the use of informal labor in many sectors and countries. Policies and measures to solve this problem have been attempted, but informal employment has become a difficult problem to solve, both worldwide and in Turkey. Changes in macroeconomic factors impact informal employment, in addition to policies toward informal employment. The aim of this study is to reveal the relationship between economic growth, unemployment and inflation with informal employment. For this purpose, the long-term and short-term relationships of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation indicators on informal employment have been analyzed. In this study, quarterly data collected from CBRT and TurKStat for the years 2004-2020 has been utilized. The long and short term effects of the factors determined on informal employment were analyzed using the ARDL bounds test. All of the long term coefficients are statistically significant. There is a long-term relationship between economic growth, unemployment, inflation and informal employment. CointEq (-1) 45% of the imbalances that occur in the short term disappear. According to the empirical results, it is expected that a 1unit increase in economic growth and inflation will create a decrease of 0.233 and 0.039, respectively. 1 unit of increase in unemployment is expected to create an increase of 0.991 on informal employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Rümeysa Çelik & Abdurrahman Keskin & Abdulkadir Keskin, 2021. "Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Kayıt Dışı İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(80), pages 451-474, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujspc:v:0:y:202:i:80:451-473
    DOI: 10.26650/jspc.2021.80.000053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/07499643C4804E13907F9D1BD45AA821
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jspc/article/turkiyede-ekonomik-buyume-issizlik-ve-enflasyonun-kayit-disi-istihdam-uzerindeki-etkisi-ardl-sinir-testi-yaklasimi
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/jspc.2021.80.000053?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schneider Friedrich & Hametner Bettina, 2014. "The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effects on Economic Growth," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 293-325, April.
    2. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    3. Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU, 2015. "The Relationship between Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate. A Ardl Causality Analysis for the Case Of Romania," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(4), pages 46-62, December.
    4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Christopher Bajada, 2005. "Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 177-189.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    12. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    13. Paul Castillo B. & Carlos Montoro Ll., 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 4-31, April.
    14. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2019. "The Economic Growth–Inflation–Shadow Economy Trilogy: Developed Versus Developing Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 679-695, October.
    15. Christopher Bajada & Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Unemployment and the Shadow Economy in the oecd," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(5), pages 1033-1067.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    2. Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    3. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    4. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    5. Chor Foon Tang, 2015. "How Stable is the Savings-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia? The Bootstrap Simulation and Recursive Causality Tests," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    7. Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2022. "Cointegration and ARDL specification between the Dubai crude oil and the US natural gas market," Papers 2206.03278, arXiv.org.
    8. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    9. Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 117-133, May.
    10. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2016. "The effects of ICT⁎ on output per worker: A study of the Chinese economy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 102-115.
    11. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    12. Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2013. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Documents de recherche 13-05, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "Savings-led growth theories: A time series analysis for Malaysia using the bootstrapping and time-varying causality techniques," MPRA Paper 27299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
    15. Daniel Sakyi & Samuel Adams, 2012. "Democracy, Government Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Ghana, 1960–2008," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 361-383, August.
    16. Gormus, Alper & Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2018. "High-yield bond and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 101-110.
    17. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    18. Feng, Gen-Fu & Wang, Quan-Jing & Chu, Yin & Wen, Jun & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    19. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Wahab, Bashir A. & Adeboye, Olusegun S., 2020. "Stationarity of prices of precious and industrial metals using recent unit root methods: Implications for markets’ efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:iujspc:v:0:y:202:i:80:451-473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.