IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hoo/wpaper/16111.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money and Velocity During Financial Crises: From the Great Depression to the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Richard G. Anderson
  • Michael Bordo
  • John V. Duca

Abstract

This study offers a single, consistent model that tracks the velocity of broad money (M2) since 1929, including the Great Depression, the global financial crisis, and the Great Recession. The model emphasizes the roles of changes in uncertainty and risk premia, financial innovation, and major banking regulations. Our findings suggest an enhanced role of a broad, liquid money aggregate as a policy guide during crises and their unwinding. Following crises, policymakers face the challenge of not only unwinding their balance sheet so as to prevent excess reserves from fueling a surge in M2, but also countering a fall in the demand for money as risk premia return to normal amid velocity shifts stemming from relevant financial reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Anderson & Michael Bordo & John V. Duca, 2016. "Money and Velocity During Financial Crises: From the Great Depression to the Great Recession," Economics Working Papers 16111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:16111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/16111_-_money_and_velocity_during_financial_crises_-_anderson_bordo_and_duca.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    3. Darby, Michael R, 1976. "Three-and-a-Half Million U.S. Employees Have Been Mislaid: Or, an Explanation of Unemployment, 1934-1941," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
    5. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    6. Wang, Yiming, 2011. "The stability of long-run money demand in the United States: A new approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 60-63, April.
    7. Sean Collins & Cheryl L. Edwards, 1994. "An alternative monetary aggregate: M2 plus household holdings of bond and equity mutual funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-29.
    8. Ireland, Peter N, 1995. "Endogenous Financial Innovation and the Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 107-123, February.
    9. Michael J. Hamburger, 1966. "The Demand for Money by Households, Money Substitutes, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(6), pages 600-600.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    11. Sean Collins & Cheryl L. Edwards, 1994. "An alternative monetary aggregate: M2 plus household holdings of bond and equity mutual funds," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-29.
    12. John Muellbauer & John Duca, 2012. "Tobin Lives: Integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models," Economics Series Working Papers 622, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. "Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-873, July.
    14. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    15. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-197.
    16. John V. Duca, 2005. "Why Have U.S. Households Increasingly Relied On Mutual Funds To Own Equity?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(3), pages 375-396, September.
    17. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2015. "The impact of commercial sweeping on the demand for monetary assets during the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 412-422.
    18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 49-79.
    19. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    20. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Becsi, Zsolt & Duca, John V., 1994. "Adding bond funds to M2 in the P-Star model of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 143-147, October.
    22. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    23. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    24. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
    25. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    26. Lawrence L Kreicher & Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2013. "The 2011 FDIC assessment on banks managed liabilities: interest rate and balance-sheet responses," BIS Working Papers 413, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: the institutional approach revisited: introduction," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 165-204.
    28. Andrew Jalil & Gisela Rua, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "Retail sweep programs and bank reserves, 1994-1999," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jan), pages 51-72.
    30. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    31. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    32. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    33. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
    34. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96, Elsevier.
    35. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    36. Athanasios Orphanides, 2015. "Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules, and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(3).
    37. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    38. M. H. A. Davis & A. R. Norman, 1990. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 676-713, November.
    39. Richard G. Anderson, 1993. "The effect of mortgage refinancing on money demand and the monetary aggregates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 49-63.
    40. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    41. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    42. Stanley Lebergott, 1957. "Annual Estimates of Unemployment in the United States, 1900-1954," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement and Behavior of Unemployment, pages 211-242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Ben S. Bernanke, 2006. "Monetary aggregates and monetary policy at the Federal Reserve: a historical perspective," Speech 243, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Bennett T. McCallum, "undated". "The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting," GSIA Working Papers 1998-20, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    45. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
    46. Duca, John V, 2000. "Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 820-839, November.
    47. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    48. Rasche, Robert H., 1987. "M1 -- Velocity and money-demand functions: Do stable relationships exist?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 9-88, January.
    49. Hamburger, Michael J., 1977. "Behavior of the money stock : Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 265-288, July.
    50. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2.
    51. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1997. "Microfoundations and the Demand for Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1186-1201, July.
    52. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    53. John B. Carlson & Jeffrey C. Schwarz, 1999. "Effects of movements in equities prices on M2 demand," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-9.
    54. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2006:i:nov10 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    56. Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1989. "Understanding the behavior of M2 and V2," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 244-254.
    57. Allan Meltzer, 1998. "Monetarism: The issues and the outcome," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 8-31, March.
    58. Robert Barsky & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 37-43, May.
    59. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1.
    60. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    61. John V. Duca, 2014. "What drives the shadow banking system in the short and long run?," Working Papers 1401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    62. Duca, John V., 2006. "Mutual funds and the evolving long-run effects of stock wealth on U.S. consumption," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 202-221.
    63. Karl Brunner & Allan H. Meltzer, 1967. "Economies of Scale in Cash Balances Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 81(3), pages 422-436.
    64. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    65. Richard G. Anderson, 2003. "Some tables of historical U.S. currency and monetary aggregates data," Working Papers 2003-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    66. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:289-338 is not listed on IDEAS
    67. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    68. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Introduction to "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods, pages 1-85, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 145-164.
    70. Rockoff, Hugh, 1981. "Price and Wage Controls in Four Wartime Periods," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 381-401, June.
    71. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Adoption of financial technologies: Implications for money demand and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 134, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    72. Robert H. Rasche, 1990. "Demand functions for measures of U.S. money and debt," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 113-172.
    73. Bordo, Michael D & Jonung, Lars & Siklos, Pierre L, 1997. "Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 710-724, October.
    74. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    75. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
    76. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Extensive Margins and the Demand for Money at Low Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 961-991, October.
    77. Hong Liu & Mark Loewenstein, 2002. "Optimal Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Finite Horizons," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 805-835.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 2306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Mr. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Financial Market Risk and U.S. Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 2007/089, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of U.S. Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 319, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Sophie Altermatt, 2018. "The Long-Run Demand for M2 Reconsidered," Diskussionsschriften dp1824, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    7. Alfred A. Haug & Julie Tam, 2001. "A Closer Look at Long Run Money Demand," Working Papers 2002_09, York University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2002.
    8. Elena Sinelnikova-Muryleva, 2011. "Innovations in the sphere of payments and the money demand in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 157P.
    9. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    10. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2019. "The demand for Divisia Money: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    12. Anderson, Richard G. & Duca, John V. & Fleissig, Adrian R. & Jones, Barry E., 2019. "New monetary services (Divisia) indexes for the post-war U.S," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 3-17.
    13. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "US Money Demand, Monetary Overhang, and Inflation," Working Papers 2010.4, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    14. Alfred A. Haug & Julie Tam, 2007. "A Closer Look At Long‐Run U.S. Money Demand: Linear Or Nonlinear Error‐Correction With M0, M1, Or M2?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(2), pages 363-376, April.
    15. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    16. Daniel Ordonez Callamand & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2018. "Una exploración reciente a la demanda por dinero en Colombia bajo un enfoque no lineal," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(1), pages 5-37, June.
    17. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
    18. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
    19. Peter Kugler & Samuel Reynard, 2022. "Money and inflation in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry Z. Cynamon & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "U.S. Narrow Money for the Twenty-First Century," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 142-152, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money demand; financial crises; monetary policy; liquidity; financial innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:16111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hostaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.