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Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan

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  • Bennett T. McCallum

Abstract

This paper conducts counterfactual historical analysis of several monetary policy rules by contrasting actual settings of instrument variables with values that would have been specified by the rules in response to prevailing conditions. Of particular interest is whether major policy mistakes, judged ex post, would have been prevented by candidate rules. The rules studied include those of Taylor and McCallum, previously considered by Alison Stuart, plus several additional combinations of instrument and target variables. The time spans examined are 1962-1998 for the U.S. and U.K., and 1972-1998 for Japan. In addition to various substantive findings, the paper develops several methodological arguments. A surprising result is that rules' messages are evidently more dependent upon the specification of their instrument than their target variable.
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  • Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 49-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2000:i:win:p:49-79
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Sep), pages 10-18.
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    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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