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IMF Programs And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

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  • Hippolyte Balima

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Anna Sokolova

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

We examine 994 estimates of the effects of IMF programs on economic growth as reported by 36 studies. The mean reported effect is positive, but the estimates vary widely. We use meta-regression analysis to disentangle sources of this variation, addressing model uncertainty with Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO. We find that estimates vary systematically depending on data and methods employed by the researchers. Reported effects of IMF programs tend to be more positive for samples that include countries with high levels of institutional and economic development, when measured on longer horizons, estimated using more recent data or obtained with the propensity score matching technique. Estimates appear to depend on the types of IMF programs being considered, as general resource programs tend to result in less favorable growth outcomes compared to programs that lend from concessional resources. Authors with IMF affiliation tend to report estimates that are somewhat higher than those of outside researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte Balima & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "IMF Programs And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 241/EC/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:241/ec/2020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF programs; Economic growth; Meta-Analysis; Bayesian Model Averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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