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Reputation and Interdealer Trading. A Microstructure Analysis of the Treasury Bond Market

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Abstract

Trading generates not only information about the payoff of the assets traded, but also information about the traders themselves. Over time this information creates reputation. By using a unique dataset on the Treasury bond market we derive a measure of reputation. This is then used to group dealers on the basis of their reputation and to analyze how they react to the reputation of other dealers. We show that the same type of trade, on the same asset, in the same market can generate different volume and volatility patterns depending on the type of dealers originating it. We also identify the “marginal traders” – i.e. the class of dealers that has the highest impact on the market. These results have strong implications in terms of forecastability of future returns, volatility and overall trading volume because they show that most of the explanatory power of trades is due to marginal traders.

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  • Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2001. "Reputation and Interdealer Trading. A Microstructure Analysis of the Treasury Bond Market," SIFR Research Report Series 5, Institute for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0005
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulf Axelson & Per Strömberg & Michael S. Weisbach, 2009. "Why Are Buyouts Levered? The Financial Structure of Private Equity Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1549-1582, August.
    2. Fleming, Michael & Nguyen, Giang & Rosenberg, Joshua, 2024. "How do Treasury dealers manage their positions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Anand, Amber & Gatchev, Vladimir A. & Madureira, Leonardo & Pirinsky, Christo A. & Underwood, Shane, 2011. "Geographic proximity and price discovery: Evidence from NASDAQ," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 193-226, May.
    4. Bjönnes, Geir H. & Holden, Steinar & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," SIFR Research Report Series 38, Institute for Financial Research.
    5. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Information Disclosure and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 195-234, February.
    6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-154, July.
    8. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    9. Ulf Axelson & Sandeep Baliga, 2009. "Liquidity and Manipulation of Executive Compensation Schemes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 3907-3939, October.
    10. José Ramón Martínez-Resano, 2005. "Size and heterogeneity matter. A microstructure-based analysis of regulation of secondary markets for governments bonds," Occasional Papers 0501, Banco de España.
    11. Rydqvist, Kristian, 2010. "Tax Arbitrage with Risk and Effort Aversion - Swedish Lottery Bonds 1970-1990," SIFR Research Report Series 70, Institute for Financial Research.
    12. Kakhbod, Ali & Song, Fei, 2020. "Dynamic price discovery: Transparency vs. information design," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 203-232.
    13. Fedyk, Yuriy & Walden, Johan, 2007. "High-Speed Natural Selection in Financial Markets with Large State Spaces," SIFR Research Report Series 52, Institute for Financial Research.
    14. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    15. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Gurun, Umit G. & Zhang, Harold, 2014. "Financial networks and trading in bond markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 126-157.
    16. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2019. "Sovereign bond markets when auctions take place: Evidence from Italy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 406-430.
    17. Dreber, Anna & Rand, David G. & Garcia, Justin R. & Wernerfelt, Nils & Lum, J. Koji & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2010. "Dopamine and Risk Preferences in Different Domains," Working Paper Series rwp10-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    18. Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.
    19. van Hemert, Otto, 2006. "Life-Cycle Housing and Portfolio Choice with Bond Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 44, Institute for Financial Research.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1201-1234 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Alicia Vidler & Toby Walsh, 2024. "Non cooperative Liquidity Games and their application to bond market trading," Papers 2405.02865, arXiv.org.
    22. Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    23. Anderson, Anders E.S., 2004. "All Guts, No Glory: Trading and Diversification among Online Investors," SIFR Research Report Series 25, Institute for Financial Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Maker; Interdealer Market; Strategic Behavior; Learning; Trading Strategies; Reputation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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