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Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach

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  • Craig Burnside
  • Martin S. Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

High-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low-interest-rate currencies. We argue that adverse-selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets can account for this 'forward premium puzzle.' The key feature of our model is that the adverse selection problem facing market makers is worse when, based on public information, a currency is expected to appreciate.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," NBER Working Papers 13278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13278
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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