IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v76y2008i2p237-253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope

Author

Listed:
  • Akram, Q. Farooq
  • Rime, Dagfinn
  • Sarno, Lucio

Abstract

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:76:y:2008:i:2:p:237-253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022-1996(08)00070-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    3. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    4. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 5, pages 189-245, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kaplan, Steven & Strömberg, Per, 2002. "Characteristics, Contracts and Actions: Evidence from Venture Capitalist Analyses," CEPR Discussion Papers 3243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Rhee, S Ghon & Chang, Rosita P, 1992. "Intra-day Arbitrage Opportunities in Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 363-379, March.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:54:y:1987:i:216:p:429-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sensoy, Berk A. & Strömberg, Per, 2005. "What are Firms? Evolution from Birth to Public Companies," SIFR Research Report Series 36, Institute for Financial Research.
    9. Bjönnes, Geir H. & Holden, Steinar & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," SIFR Research Report Series 38, Institute for Financial Research.
    10. Ted Juhl & William Miles & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2006. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then versus Now," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(290), pages 341-352, May.
    11. Massimo Massa & Andrei Simonov, 2006. "Hedging, Familiarity and Portfolio Choice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 633-685.
    12. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Fletcher, Donna J & Taylor, Larry W, 1996. ""Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 530-538, August.
    14. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    15. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 7, pages 291-324, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Carol L. Osler, 2001. "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis," Staff Reports 125, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    19. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    20. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    21. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2003. "Reputation and interdealer trading: a microstructure analysis of the Treasury Bond market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 99-141, April.
    22. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
    23. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    24. Bortolotti, Bernardo & de Jong, Frank & Nicodano, Giovanna & Schindele, Ibolya, 2007. "Privatization and stock market liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 297-316, February.
    25. Robert Z. Aliber & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Shu Yan, 2003. "Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions May Increase Volatility," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 7(3), pages 481-510.
    26. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    27. Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
    28. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip Strahan, 2003. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 9704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, April.
    30. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
    31. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
    32. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
    33. Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-1035, Nov./Dec..
    34. Sundaram, Rangarajan K. & Yermack, David, 2006. "Pay Me Later: Inside Debt and Its Role in Managerial Compensation," SIFR Research Report Series 43, Institute for Financial Research.
    35. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-1226, December.
    36. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1973. "Elasticities and the Interest Parity Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 741-747, May-June.
    37. Carol L. Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    38. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-253, May.
    39. Donald P. Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584.
    40. Ted Juhl & William Miles & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then vs. Now," NBER Working Papers 10961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-370, April.
    42. Richard J. Sweeney (ed.), 2005. "Foreign Exchange Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2558.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    3. Bjönnes, Geir H. & Holden, Steinar & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," SIFR Research Report Series 38, Institute for Financial Research.
    4. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    6. Rich Lyons & Martin Evans, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
    7. Ulf Axelson & Sandeep Baliga, 2009. "Liquidity and Manipulation of Executive Compensation Schemes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 3907-3939, October.
    8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Information Disclosure and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 195-234, February.
    10. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    11. Rydqvist, Kristian, 2010. "Tax Arbitrage with Risk and Effort Aversion - Swedish Lottery Bonds 1970-1990," SIFR Research Report Series 70, Institute for Financial Research.
    12. Dreber, Anna & Rand, David G. & Garcia, Justin R. & Wernerfelt, Nils & Lum, J. Koji & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2010. "Dopamine and Risk Preferences in Different Domains," Working Paper Series rwp10-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    13. Wai-Ming Fong & Giorgio Valente & Joseph K.W. Fung, 2008. "FX Arbitrage and Market Liquidity: Statistical Significance and Economic Value," Working Papers 082008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Ulf Axelson & Per Strömberg & Michael S. Weisbach, 2009. "Why Are Buyouts Levered? The Financial Structure of Private Equity Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1549-1582, August.
    15. Fedyk, Yuriy & Walden, Johan, 2007. "High-Speed Natural Selection in Financial Markets with Large State Spaces," SIFR Research Report Series 52, Institute for Financial Research.
    16. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Young Ju, 2016. "Covered interest parity and arbitrage paradox in emerging markets: Evidence from the Korean market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 161-176.
    18. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    19. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
    20. van Hemert, Otto, 2006. "Life-Cycle Housing and Portfolio Choice with Bond Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 44, Institute for Financial Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates Arbitrage Covered interest rate parity Foreign exchange microstructure;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:76:y:2008:i:2:p:237-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.