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Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Sami Diaf

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

  • Jörg Döpke

    (Hochschule Merseburg (University of Applied Sciences Merseburg))

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

  • Ida Rockenbach

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

Abstract

Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 we use methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal to scale the institutions’ theoretical/ ideological position over debates. The results are in line with findings from descriptive textual analysis. For monetary policy, we observe a strong but short-living consensus in debate-specific positions during the heat of the financial crisis in 2008 and a larger polarization after 2008 compared to the sample period before. For the fiscal policy textual corpus, the polarization was similarly high before and after the crisis. For both policy areas, the institutions DIW Berlin and IfW Kiel define the outer bounds of the observed spectrum of latent ideological positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Diaf & Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Ida Rockenbach, 2020. "Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 202001, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:202001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Text Scaling Model; Wordfish; Wordshoal; Computational Content Analysis; Hierarchical Factor Model; Bayesian Estimation; Political Economy; Ideology; Polarization; Public Policy; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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