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Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies

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  • Homburg, Stefan

Abstract

This paper shows that the eurozone payment system does not effectively protect member states from speculative attacks. Suspicion of a departure from the common currency induces a terminal outflow of central bank money in weaker member states. TARGET2 cannot inhibit this drain but only protects central bank assets. Evidence presented here suggests that a run on Italy is already on the way. The paper also considers departure strategies of strong and weak member states and the distributive effects of an orderly eurozone dissolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Homburg, Stefan, 2018. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-640, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Sven Steinkamp & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2017. "The Euro Area’s Common Pool Problem Revisited: Has the Single Supervisory Mechanism Ameliorated Forbearance and Evergreening?," IEER Working Papers 107, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 06 Oct 2017.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target-Kredite, Leistungsbilanzsalden und Kapitalverkehr: Der Rettungsschirm der EZB," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(1), pages 01-29, June.
    4. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:50000000003757 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
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    12. Stefan Homburg, 2011. "Anmerkungen zum Target2-Streit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(16), pages 46-50, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    2. Heikki Oksanen, 2019. "Reforming the Euro Pragmatically: Towards Sustainable Fiscal Policy and a Revamped Eurosystem," CESifo Working Paper Series 7912, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency speculation; TARGET2; eurozone; Italexit; Dexit; trilemma;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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