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Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies

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  • Stefan Homburg

Abstract

This paper shows that the eurozone payment system does not effectively protect member states from speculative attacks. Suspicion of a departure from the common currency induces a terminal outflow of central bank money in weaker member states. TARGET2 cannot inhibit this drain but only protects central bank assets. Evidence presented here suggests that a run on Italy is already on the way. The paper also considers departure strategies of strong and weak member states and the distributive effects of an orderly eurozone dissolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Homburg, 2018. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7343, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7343
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7343.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target-Kredite, Leistungsbilanzsalden und Kapitalverkehr: Der Rettungsschirm der EZB," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(1), pages 01-29, June.
    3. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    5. Garber, Peter M., 1999. "The target mechanism: Will it propagate or stifle a stage III crisis?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 195-220, December.
    6. Bryon Higgins, 1993. "Was the ERM crisis inevitable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 27-40.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency speculation; TARGET2; eurozone; Italexit; dexit; trilemma;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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