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Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Teresa Buchen
  • Kai Carstensen
  • Christian Grimme
  • Michael Kleemann
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Ist der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion, verbunden mit einer externen Abwertung der neuen Währung, eine gangbare Alternative zur derzeitigen Strategie der internen Abwertung, verbunden mit öffentlichem Kapitaltransfer? Das ifo Institut vergleicht in dem Beitrag die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen von drei möglichen Zukunftsszenarien. Im ersten Szenario tritt Griechenland aus dem Euro aus und führt die Neue Griechische Drachme als offizielles Zahlungsmittel ein. Im zweiten Szenario verbleibt Griechenland in der Währungsunion und schafft es, die notwendige interne Abwertung zu erreichen. Im dritten Szenario wird angenommen, dass Griechenland zwar in der Währungsunion verbleibt, die notwendige interne Abwertung jedoch misslingt und durch öffentliche Subventionen aus der EU ausgeglichen wird. Während das letzte Szenario die aktuelle Situation fortschreibt, wird für die ersten beiden Szenarien anhand von historischen Beispielen untersucht, wie sich wichtige volkswirtschaftliche Größen nach großen Abwertungen entwickelt haben. Zudem werden für diese beiden Szenarien mögliche negative Bilanzeffekte für Griechenland analysiert. Zum Abschluss wird die technische Umsetzung des Austritts Griechenlands aus der Eurozone diskutiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Teresa Buchen & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Michael Kleemann & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Austritt Griechenlands aus der Europäischen Währungsunion: Historische Erfahrungen, makroökonomische Konsequenzen und organisatorische Umsetzung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 09-37, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:10:p:09-37
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Homburg, 2019. "Speculative Eurozone Attacks and Departure Strategies," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(1), pages 1-15.
    2. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "Chapter 2: European Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 55-72, February.
    3. Reiner Peter Hellbrück, 2012. "Regionale Zinspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(15), pages 27-34, August.
    4. Jürgen Matthes & Thomas Schuster, 2015. "Zum Umgang der Europäischen Währungsunion mit reformunwilligen Eurostaaten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(04), pages 13-18, February.
    5. Dirk Meyer, 2012. "Das Konzept nationaler Parallelwährungen für die Eurozone," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 19-28, August.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2018. "Brexit a krize eura: jakou chceme Evropskou unii? [Brexit and the Euro Crisis: What Kind of Union Do We Want?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 3-19.
    8. Fritz Breuss, 2012. "EU-Mitgliedschaft Österreichs. Eine Evaluierung in Zeiten der Krise," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45578.
    9. Peter Burgold, 2013. "Nominale Abwertung innerhalb einer Währungsunion," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 47-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    10. Isabel Hanisch & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Wie schnell erholt sich eine Volkswirtschaft nach einer Währungs- und Staatsschuldenkrise?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(13), pages 56-57, July.
    11. Klaus Weyerstrass & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, 2013. "Euro Area Scenarios and their Economic Consequences for Slovenia and Serbia," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 323-351.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Staatsbankrott; Umschuldung; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; Finanzmarktkrise; Griechenland; Eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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