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Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term ?

Author

Listed:
  • Benoit Chèze

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

  • Pascal Gastineau

    (IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to offset the CO2 emissions resulting from rapid air traffic growth. Global aviation CO2 emissions projections are examined for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic flows are forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nor is any compatible with the Panel's aim of limiting global warming to 3.2 °C

Suggested Citation

  • Benoit Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2013. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term ?," Working Papers hal-02489656, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02489656
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02489656
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cii:cepiei:2011-q2-3-126-127-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Paris, 2016. "The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Transition Cointegration Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Dupoux, Marion, 2019. "The land use change time-accounting failure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Emmanuel Hache, 2018. "Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 127-135.
    4. Amizadeh, Fatemeh & Alonso, Gustavo & Benito, Arturo & Morales-Alonso, Gustavo, 2016. "Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 9-19.
    5. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott, 2014. "Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 197-207.
    6. Pedro Dorta Antequera & Jaime Díaz Pacheco & Abel López Díez & Celia Bethencourt Herrera, 2021. "Tourism, Transport and Climate Change: The Carbon Footprint of International Air Traffic on Islands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti, 2021. "The Nexus between Technological Advancement and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 160-169.
    8. Wang, Zhaohua & Liu, Wei, 2015. "Determinants of CO2 emissions from household daily travel in Beijing, China: Individual travel characteristic perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 292-299.
    9. Albert Banal-Estañol & Jeremy Eckhause & Olivier Massol, 2015. "Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a European perspective," Working Papers hal-02475485, HAL.
    10. Grampella, Mattia & Lo, Pak Lam & Martini, Gianmaria & Scotti, Davide, 2017. "The impact of technology progress on aviation noise and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 525-540.
    11. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.
    12. Alonso, G. & Benito, A. & Lonza, L. & Kousoulidou, M., 2014. "Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-93.
    13. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "On the link between oil price and exchange rate : A time-varying VAR parameter approach," Working Papers hal-03206684, HAL.
    14. González, Rodrigo & Hosoda, Eiji B., 2016. "Environmental impact of aircraft emissions and aviation fuel tax in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 234-240.
    15. Wajahat Ali & Azrai Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2016. "The Dynamic Linkage between Technological Innovation and carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Bound Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 389-400.
    16. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott Allen & Hares, Andrew, 2016. "Inside the black box: EU policy officers' perspectives on transport and climate change mitigation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 83-93.
    17. S. M. Phyoe & Y. X. Lee & Z. W. Zhong, 2016. "Determining the Future Demand: Studies for Air Traffic Forecasting," International Journal of Technology and Engineering Studies, PROF.IR.DR.Mohid Jailani Mohd Nor, vol. 2(3), pages 83-86.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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