IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-02489656.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term ?

Author

Listed:
  • Benoit Chèze

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

  • Pascal Gastineau

    (IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to offset the CO2 emissions resulting from rapid air traffic growth. Global aviation CO2 emissions projections are examined for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic flows are forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nor is any compatible with the Panel's aim of limiting global warming to 3.2 °C

Suggested Citation

  • Benoit Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2013. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term ?," Working Papers hal-02489656, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02489656
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02489656
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02489656/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    2. Olsthoorn, Xander, 2001. "Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950–2050," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 87-93.
    3. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    4. repec:cii:cepiei:2011-q2-3-126-127-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christophe Barret & Philippe Chollet, 1990. "Canadian Gas Exports : Modeling a Market in Disequilibrium," Working Papers hal-02432570, HAL.
    6. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Dorta Antequera & Jaime Díaz Pacheco & Abel López Díez & Celia Bethencourt Herrera, 2021. "Tourism, Transport and Climate Change: The Carbon Footprint of International Air Traffic on Islands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Wang, Zhaohua & Liu, Wei, 2015. "Determinants of CO2 emissions from household daily travel in Beijing, China: Individual travel characteristic perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 292-299.
    3. Alonso, G. & Benito, A. & Lonza, L. & Kousoulidou, M., 2014. "Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-93.
    4. Dupoux, Marion, 2019. "The land use change time-accounting failure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Albert Banal-Estañol & Jeremy Eckhause & Olivier Massol, 2015. "Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a European perspective," Working Papers hal-02475485, HAL.
    6. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "On the link between oil price and exchange rate : A time-varying VAR parameter approach," Working Papers hal-03206684, HAL.
    7. Amizadeh, Fatemeh & Alonso, Gustavo & Benito, Arturo & Morales-Alonso, Gustavo, 2016. "Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 9-19.
    8. S. M. Phyoe & Y. X. Lee & Z. W. Zhong, 2016. "Determining the Future Demand: Studies for Air Traffic Forecasting," International Journal of Technology and Engineering Studies, PROF.IR.DR.Mohid Jailani Mohd Nor, vol. 2(3), pages 83-86.
    9. Anthony Paris, 2016. "The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Transition Cointegration Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott, 2014. "Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 197-207.
    11. Hache, Emmanuel, 2018. "Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 127-135.
    12. Grampella, Mattia & Lo, Pak Lam & Martini, Gianmaria & Scotti, Davide, 2017. "The impact of technology progress on aviation noise and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 525-540.
    13. González, Rodrigo & Hosoda, Eiji B., 2016. "Environmental impact of aircraft emissions and aviation fuel tax in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 234-240.
    14. Wajahat Ali & Azrai Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2016. "The Dynamic Linkage between Technological Innovation and carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Bound Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 389-400.
    15. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott Allen & Hares, Andrew, 2016. "Inside the black box: EU policy officers' perspectives on transport and climate change mitigation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 83-93.
    16. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti, 2021. "The Nexus between Technological Advancement and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 160-169.
    17. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benoit Cheze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?," Working Papers 1207, Chaire Economie du climat.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9262 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: analysis of historical trends by geographical zones using a macro-level methodology," Working Papers hal-02474644, HAL.
    5. Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," Working Papers hal-04141052, HAL.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6794 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9263 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    10. Benoît Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: New results from a macro-level approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 151-177.
    11. Peeters, Paul & Dubois, Ghislain, 2010. "Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-457.
    12. Lo, Pak Lam & Martini, Gianmaria & Porta, Flavio & Scotti, Davide, 2020. "The determinants of CO2 emissions of air transport passenger traffic: An analysis of Lombardy (Italy)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 108-119.
    13. Vespermann, Jan & Wald, Andreas, 2011. "Much Ado about Nothing? – An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1066-1076.
    14. Kai Wang & Chang Gan & Yan Ou & Haolong Liu, 2019. "Low-Carbon Behaviour Performance of Scenic Spots in a World Heritage Site," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-23, July.
    15. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Zhong-Yu & Wang, Shou-Yang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Aviation fuel demand development in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 224-235.
    16. Martín-Cejas, Roberto & del Pino, Francisco, 2017. "Welfare Gain From Carbon Tax Applied To Leisure Air Traffic," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 5(4), pages 471-480.
    17. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    18. Grampella, Mattia & Lo, Pak Lam & Martini, Gianmaria & Scotti, Davide, 2017. "The impact of technology progress on aviation noise and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 525-540.
    19. Yilmaz, Nadir & Atmanli, Alpaslan, 2017. "Sustainable alternative fuels in aviation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P2), pages 1378-1386.
    20. Jan Vespermann & Andreas Wittmer, 2011. "Financial, ecological and managerial impacts of emission trading schemes: the case of Lufthansa," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 174-191, March.
    21. Zhou, Wenji & Wang, Tao & Yu, Yadong & Chen, Dingjiang & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation industry through 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 100-108.
    22. González, Rodrigo & Hosoda, Eiji B., 2016. "Environmental impact of aircraft emissions and aviation fuel tax in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 234-240.
    23. Francisco A. Buendia-Hernandez & Maria J. Ortiz Bevia & Francisco J. Alvarez-Garcia & Antonio Ruizde Elvira, 2022. "Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-17, November.
    24. Zhang, Chi & Hui, Xin & Lin, Yuzhen & Sung, Chih-Jen, 2016. "Recent development in studies of alternative jet fuel combustion: Progress, challenges, and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 120-138.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02489656. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.