IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v18y2010i3p447-457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Peeters, Paul
  • Dubois, Ghislain

Abstract

The paper first describes an inventory for 2005 giving the tourism related CO2 emission caused by global tourism, and presents a 30-year projection and a 45-year simulation. The study found that tourists cause 4.4% of global CO2 emissions. Also these emissions are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.2% per year up to 2035. This increase is problematic as globally a reduction of emissions by 3–6% is required to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change. Using contemporary scenario techniques it appeared difficult to find a future tourist travel system consistent with CO2 emission reductions of up to 70% by 2050 with respect to 2005. Based on the model underlying the 30-year projection, 70 scenarios are presented in a ‘landscape’ graph exploring the effect of opportunities to reduce the emissions, but this attempt did not reach the large reductions envisaged. We therefore explored automated scenario generation as a way to define backcasting scenarios that both reach the emission reduction target and retain the highest possible economic value for the sector. The main contributions made by this study are (1) in comparing the value of different ways to approach a (desired) future and (2) giving insight into the kind of structural changes required within tourism and tourism transport in case very strong emission reductions are required. Finally the model showed signs of ‘complex’ behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Peeters, Paul & Dubois, Ghislain, 2010. "Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-457.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:18:y:2010:i:3:p:447-457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692309001422
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 1999. "Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 657-679.
    2. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    3. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    4. Schafer, Andreas & Jacoby, Henry D., 2006. "Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 975-985, June.
    5. Azar, Christian & Lindgren, Kristian & Andersson, Bjorn A., 2003. "Global energy scenarios meeting stringent CO2 constraints--cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 961-976, August.
    6. Schafer, Andreas & Jacoby, Henry D., 2005. "Technology detail in a multisector CGE model: transport under climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Olsthoorn, Xander, 2001. "Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950–2050," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 87-93.
    8. Schafer, Andreas, 1998. "The global demand for motorized mobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 455-477, August.
    9. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    2. Meyer, I. & Leimbach, M. & Jaeger, C.C., 2007. "International passenger transport and climate change: A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6332-6345, December.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Takeshita, Takayuki, 2012. "Assessing the co-benefits of CO2 mitigation on air pollutants emissions from road vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 225-237.
    6. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Applying engineering and fleet detail to represent passenger vehicle transport in a computable general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 295-305.
    7. Takayuki Takeshita, 2011. "Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-31, July.
    8. Diana Reckien & Maren Ewald & Ottmar Edenhofer & Matthias K. B. Liideke, 2007. "What Parameters Influence the Spatial Variations in CO2 Emissions from Road Traffic in Berlin? Implications for Urban Planning to Reduce Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 339-355, February.
    9. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    10. Philippe Thalmann & Marc Vielle, 2019. "Lowering CO2 emissions in the Swiss transport sector," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    12. Nabernegg, Stefan & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Muñoz, Pablo & Titz, Michaela & Vogel, Johanna, 2019. "National Policies for Global Emission Reductions: Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Reductions in International Supply Chains," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 146-157.
    13. Orlando Reyes. & Roberto Escalante. & Anna Matas., 2010. "La demanda de gasolinas en México: Efectos y alternativas ante el cambio climático," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 32(1), pages 83-111, Enero-Jun.
    14. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
    15. Paul Peeters & Martin Landré, 2011. "The Emerging Global Tourism Geography—An Environmental Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.
    16. Dubois, Ghislain & Peeters, Paul & Ceron, Jean-Paul & Gössling, Stefan, 2011. "The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1031-1042.
    17. Benoit Cheze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?," Working Papers 1207, Chaire Economie du climat.
    18. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 1999. "Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 657-679.
    19. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Chen, Cynthia, 2004. "TTB or not TTB, that is the question: a review and analysis of the empirical literature on travel time (and money) budgets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(9-10), pages 643-675.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9262 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Van Ommeren, Jos & Rietveld, Piet, 2005. "The commuting time paradox," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 437-454, November.
    22. Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:18:y:2010:i:3:p:447-457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.