IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-00392382.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from US Coastal counties

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Strobl

    (X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

Abstract

We estimate for the first time the impact of hurricane strikes on local economic growth rates and how this is reflected in more aggregate growth patterns. To this end we assemble a panel data set of US coastal counties' growth rates and construct a novel hurricane destruction index that is based on a monetary loss equation, local wind speed estimates derived from a physical wind field model, and local exposure characteristics. Our econometric results suggest that in response to a hurricane strike a county's annual economic growth rate will initially fall by 0.8, but then partially recover by 0.2 percentage points. While the pattern is qualitatively similar at the state level, the net effect over the long term is negligible. Hurricane strikes do not appear to be economically important enough to be reflected in national economic growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Strobl, 2009. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from US Coastal counties," Working Papers hal-00392382, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00392382
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00392382
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00392382/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. Horwich, George, 2000. "Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 521-542, April.
    3. Rappaport, Jordan & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 2003. "The United States as a Coastal Nation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    4. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    5. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    6. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    7. Eric Strobl & Frank Walsh, 2009. "The Re-Building Effect of Hurricanes: Evidence from Employment in the US Construction Industry," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3059-3066.
    8. Belasen, Ariel R. & Polachek, Solomon, 2008. "How Hurricanes Affect Employment and Wages in Local Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 3407, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Richard Evans & Yingyao Hu & Zhong Zhao, 2010. "The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 1-36, January.
    10. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    11. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Papers 2005-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    12. Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2006. "Growth and Convergence across the United States: Evidence from County-Level Data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88(4), pages 671-681.
    13. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    14. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    15. William D. Nordhaus, 2006. "The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States," NBER Working Papers 12813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    17. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2009. "How Disasters Affect Local Labor Markets: The Effects of Hurricanes in Florida," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
    18. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    20. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    21. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Strobl, Eric, 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-141.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    3. Kulanthaivelu, Eric, 2023. "The impact of tropical cyclones on income inequality in the U.S.: An empirical analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. Eric Strobl, 2009. "The impact of hurricane strikes on local cropland productivity: Evidence from the Carribean," Working Papers hal-00393883, HAL.
    5. Tanaka, Ayumu, 2015. "The impacts of natural disasters on plants' growth: Evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 31-41.
    6. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dorothée Charlier & Mouez Fodha & Djamel Kirat, 2023. "Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 187-206, September.
    8. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo.
    9. Garita, Gus, 2009. "How Does Financial Openness Affect Economic Growth and its Components?," MPRA Paper 20099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Martina Kirchberger, 2014. "Natural Disasters and Labour Markets," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2014-19, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    13. Alberini, Anna & Filippini, Massimo, 2011. "Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 889-895, September.
    14. Böhringer, Christoph & Moslener, Ulf & Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Ziegler, Andreas, 2012. "Clean and productive? Empirical evidence from the German manufacturing industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 442-451.
    15. Kretschmer, Bettina & Hübler, Michael & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2010. "Does foreign aid reduce energy and carbon intensities in developing countries?," Kiel Working Papers 1598, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Roberto Dell'Anno & Adalgiso Amendola, 2015. "Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 274-301, June.
    17. Vikrant Panwar & Subir Sen, 2019. "Economic Impact of Natural Disasters: An Empirical Re-examination," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 109-139, February.
    18. Jochimsen, Beate & Thomasius, Sebastian, 2014. "The perfect finance minister: Whom to appoint as finance minister to balance the budget," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 390-408.
    19. Dorothée CHARLIER & Mouez FODHA & Djamel KIRAT, 2021. "CO2 Emissions from the Residential Sector in Europe: Some Insights form a Country-Level Assessment," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2849, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    20. Kirchberger, Martina, 2017. "Natural disasters and labor markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 40-58.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hurricanes; economic growth; US coastal counties;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00392382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.