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Voting under threat: evidence from the 2020 French local elections

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  • Leromain, Elsa
  • Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague

Abstract

We study how Covid-related risk affected participation across the French territory in the March 2020 local elections. We document that participation went down disproportionately in towns exposed to higher Covid-19 risk. Towns that lean towards the far-right saw a stronger drop in turnout, in particular in the vicinity of clusters. We argue that these patterns are partly a result of risk perceptions, and not only of political considerations. We use data on the drop in cinema admissions in early March 2020 and show that these went down more around infection clusters, especially in areas with substantial vote for the far-right. Taken together, our findings suggest that the fear of Covid-19 may have been on average more prevalent among far-right voters, contributing to a drop in their electoral participation.

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  • Leromain, Elsa & Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague, 2021. "Voting under threat: evidence from the 2020 French local elections," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113916, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113916
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    Cited by:

    1. Khasanboev, Temurbek & Hessami, Zohal, 2023. "Crisis Management and Local Political Accountability," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277676, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Alena Bicakova & Stepan Jurajda, 2024. "COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp778, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Boldrini, Michela & Conzo, Pierluigi & Fiore, Simona & Zotti, Roberto, 2023. "Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202320, University of Turin.
    5. Andreea Stancea & Aurelian Muntean, 2024. "Keep the (social) distance! Turnout and risk perception during health crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electoral turnout; local elections; Covid-19; far-right; coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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