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Changing-regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model

Author

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  • Gilles Dufrenot

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Anne Peguin-Feissolle

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different long-memory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple FARIMA models is made using some forecastibility criteria. Our empirical results suggest that our model offers an interesting alternative competing framework to describe the persistent dynamics in modeling the returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrenot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "Changing-regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00185369, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00185369
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600993778
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00185369
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Boutahar & Gilles Dufrénot & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A Simple Fractionally Integrated Model with a Time-varying Long Memory Parameter d t," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 225-241, April.
    2. Goldman Elena & Nam Jouahn & Tsurumi Hiroki & Wang Jun, 2013. "Regimes and long memory in realized volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 521-549, December.
    3. Boubaker Heni, 2018. "A Generalized ARFIMA Model with Smooth Transition Fractional Integration Parameter," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Gupta Rangan & Miller Stephen M., 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Aloy Marcel & Dufrénot Gilles & Tong Charles Lai & Peguin-Feissolle Anne, 2013. "A smooth transition long-memory model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 281-296, May.
    6. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Wavelet based Estimation of Time- Varying Long Memory Model with Nonlinear Fractional Integration Parameter," Working Papers 2014-284, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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