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The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model

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  • Edwin Le Héron

    (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nicolas Yol

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Migrants' remittances are an essential source of income in many developing countries. In this article, we build a post-Keynesian stock–flow consistent model adapted to Moldova, one of the top recipients of remittances. In addition to increasing household consumption, migrants' transfers have strong effects on economic growth in Moldova. However, remittances are very sensitive to the economic conditions in migrants' destination countries, especially since the 2008 global financial crisis. After including remittances in consumption behavior and lenders' risk, we run simulations to show how shocks in migrants' destination countries (that is, Europe and Russia) impact the Moldovan economy through fluctuations in remittances. First, the increasing instability of remittances explains a significant portion of the economic volatility experienced by Moldova. Second, the high level of imports implies a weak multiplier effect of remittances, leading to an unsustainable pattern of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin Le Héron & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model," Post-Print halshs-01885949, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01885949
    DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2018.00039
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01885949
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    Cited by:

    1. Olga Gagauz & Tatiana Tabac & Irina Pahomii, 2023. "Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 419-443.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; volatility; remittances; stock-flow consistent models; Moldova; business cycles; Remittances; Stock-flow consistent models; Business cycles; Migration; Volatility; economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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