IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00646622.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Confidence and financial crisis in a post-keynesian stock-flow consistent model

Author

Listed:
  • Edwin Le Héron

    (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper aims at showing that one of the main channels by which the US 2007 financial crisis became a real and global economic crisis is the 'confidence channel', i.e. that the financial crisis affected firms, banks and households? expectations and confidence, thus leading to what they were fearing. And I propose to model expectations and the state of confidence of private agents to use the indexes calculated by national statistical services from monthly polls.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin Le Héron, 2011. "Confidence and financial crisis in a post-keynesian stock-flow consistent model," Post-Print halshs-00646622, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00646622
    DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2011.02.09
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00646622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00646622/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4337/ejeep.2011.02.09?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edwin Le Heron & Tarik Mouakil, 2008. "A Post‐Keynesian Stock‐Flow Consistent Model For Dynamic Analysis Of Monetary Policy Shock On Banking Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 405-440, July.
    2. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2977 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2977 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/17g7senmu38qqa09nqh9tk9hbn is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Meijers, Huub & Muysken, Joan & Piccillo, Giulia, 2023. "Expectations and the stability of stock-flow consistent models," MERIT Working Papers 2023-024, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Greg Philip Hannsgen, 2021. "A Minimal Probabilistic Minsky Model: 3D Continuous-Jump Dynamics," Working Papers PKWP2026, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. LE HERON Edwin & MAROUANE Amine, 2015. "A history of contemporary post Keynesian SFC model," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-15, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    5. Nikolaidi, Maria, 2014. "Margins of safety and instability in a macrodynamic model with Minskyan insights," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    7. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    8. Angel Asensio & Sébastien Charles & Edwin Le Héron & Dany Lang, 2011. "Recent developments in Post-Keynesian modeling [Los desarrollos recientes de la macroeconomía post-keynesiana]," Post-Print halshs-00664867, HAL.
    9. Greg Philip Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2021. "Expectational and Portfolio-Demand Shifts in a Keynesian Model of Monetary Growth Fluctuations," Working Papers PKWP2112, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    10. Edwin Le Heron & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of migrants' remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 31-54, April.
    11. Asensio, Angel & Charles, Sébastien & Lang, Dany & Le Heron, Edwin, 2011. "Les développements récents de la macroéconomie post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 10.
    12. Özgür Bayram SOYLU, 2020. "A simple model of developing countries: financing the current account deficit Abstract: A stock flow consistent model provides a monetary and financial framework to macroeconomics. It clearly shows th," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 123-145, June.
    13. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Sercin Sahin, 2021. "Consumer confidence, consumption, and macroeconomic fluctuations: A systemic stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 868-904, November.
    15. Jessica Reale, 2022. "Interbank market and funding liquidity risk in a stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 734-769, July.
    16. Greg Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2015. "Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal Policy Model: The Unit of Account, Inflation, Leverage, and Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_839, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Greg Philip Hannsgen, 2021. "A Minimal Probabilistic Minsky Model: 3D Continuous-Jump Dynamics," Working Papers PKWP2102, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/17g7senmu38qqa09nqh9tk9hbn is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jorge Garcia-Arias & Eduardo Fernandez-Huerga & Ana Salvador, 2013. "European Periphery Crises, International Financial Markets, and Democracy," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 826-850, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    2. Fontana, Olimpia & Godin, Antoine, 2013. "Securitization, housing market and banking sector behavior in a stock-flow consistent model," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
    4. Hong, Claire Yurong & Lu, Xiaomeng & Pan, Jun, 2021. "FinTech adoption and household risk-taking," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2009. "Monetary policy shocks, Choleski identification, and DNK models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1014-1021, October.
    7. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Karadi, Peter & Nakov, Anton, 2021. "Effectiveness and addictiveness of quantitative easing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1096-1117.
    9. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    11. Dipankar Mondal & N. Selvaraju, 2022. "Convexity, two-fund separation and asset ranking in a mean-LPM portfolio selection framework," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 44(1), pages 225-248, March.
    12. Eric Parrado & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "Alternative Monetary Rules in the Open Economy: A Welfare-Based Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 7, pages 295-348, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Hany Shawky & Ronald Forbes & Alan Frankle, 1983. "Liquidity Services and Capital Market Equilibrium: The Case for Money Market Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 6(2), pages 141-152, June.
    15. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2020. "Financial shocks and the relative dynamics of tangible and intangible investment: Evidence from the euro area," Discussion Papers 39/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Radwanski, Juliusz, 2020. "On the Purchasing Power of Money in an Exchange Economy," MPRA Paper 104244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Targeting under Alternative Fiscal Regimes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 3, pages 037-075, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    19. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2006. "External currency pricing and the East Asian crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 37-63, June.
    20. Carlo Altavilla, 2003. "Assessing monetary rules performance across EMU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 131-151.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    confidence; financial crisis; stock-flow-consistent modelling; crise financière; confiance; politique financière;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00646622. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.