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Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

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  • Olga Gagauz
  • Tatiana Tabac
  • Irina Pahomii

Abstract

In Moldova, there has been a long-term decline in the population, mainly due to high levels of emigration. The article presents an analysis of population dynamics in Moldova over the last three decades, and estimates the contributions of fertility, mortality and migration to this process. Using population censuses, data on the population with usual residence, vital statistics and data on Moldovan immigrants from the host countries’ statistical institutes,we estimate population changes between 1991–2021, and present demographic projections up to 2040. The results show that migration outflows account for more than 90% of the depopulation trend, with high levels of premature mortality accelerating the natural decline. The fall in births is associated with a decrease in the reproductive-age population. The total fertility rate has been decreasing gradually, while the cohort fertility rates have not fallen below 1.75 live births per woman. Past migration and low fertility are projected to result in long-term population decline. Demographic ageing is expected to increase. While population decline cannot be stopped, its scale can be limited through reductions in emigration and mortality. This study on population decline in Moldova helps to complete the demographic picture of Europe in the 20th century and into the 21st century.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Gagauz & Tatiana Tabac & Irina Pahomii, 2023. "Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 419-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:21:y:2023:i:1:oid:0x003e2751
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/17g7senmu38qqa09nqh9tk9hbn is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Edwin Le Heron & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of migrants' remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 31-54, April.
    3. Cristina Ilie Goga, 2020. "Is Romania in a social and economic crisis caused by emigration? The new policy of the Romanian state on migration," Sociology and Social Work Review, International Society for projects in Education and Research, vol. 4(1), pages 31-37, June.
    4. Edwin Le Héron & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model," Post-Print halshs-01885949, HAL.
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