IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02557600.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

History, time and futures studies. Tensions from geostrategy anticipatory practices

Author

Listed:
  • Anne Marchais-Roubelat

    (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM])

  • Fabrice Roubelat

    (CEREGE [Poitiers, La Rochelle] - Centre de recherche en gestion [EA 1722] - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - ULR - La Rochelle Université)

Abstract

Since seminal futures publications, geostrategy anticipatory practices have infused the futures field, as well as questioned the place of time and history in futures thinking. Exploring the temporal tensions of futures thinking, this paper discusses lessons from two geostrategy futures cases. Bridging history and futures studies, section 1 stresses the wicked nature of future history and discusses research directions to introduce time in futures thinking. Section 2 exhibits the context, the design and the methodological backgrounds of the two cases. Section 3 discusses the temporal tensions between factors, actors and events on the one hand and within action processes on the other hand and suggests developing a streaming approach of anticipation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Marchais-Roubelat & Fabrice Roubelat, 2019. "History, time and futures studies. Tensions from geostrategy anticipatory practices," Post-Print hal-02557600, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02557600
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02557600
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02557600/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bourgeois, Robin & Penunia, Esther & Bisht, Sonali & Boruk, Don, 2017. "Foresight for all: Co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 178-188.
    2. Saritas, Ozcan & Nugroho, Yanuar, 2012. "Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 509-529.
    3. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    4. Saritas, Ozcan & Burmaoglu, Serhat, 2016. "Future of sustainable military operations under emerging energy and security considerations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 331-343.
    5. Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 2016. "A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1050-1062.
    6. Anne Marchais-Roubelat & Fabrice Roubelat, 2016. "Dominance, stakeholders’ moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures," Post-Print hal-02148868, HAL.
    7. Fabrice Roubelat & Jamie Brassett & Michael Mcallum & Jonas Hoffmann & Denisa Kera, 2015. "Probing ephemeral futures: Scenarios as fashion design," Post-Print hal-02148873, HAL.
    8. Anne Marchais-Roubelat & Fabrice Roubelat, 2008. "Designing action based scenarios," Post-Print hal-02148883, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
    2. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    3. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. George Cairns, 2021. "Resistance to hegemony in theorising scenario methods: A manifesto in response to Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    5. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Hansen, Meiken & Selin, Cynthia, 2021. "Stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning—A review of European projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Anne Marchais-Roubelat & Fabrice Roubelat, 2018. "The sustainability of the making of global communities. Functions, dysfunctions, scenarios," Post-Print hal-02557578, HAL.
    7. Gordon, Adam Vigdor, 2020. "Limits and longevity: A model for scenarios that influence the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ali, Mohammad M. & Hong, Tao & Hyndman, Rob J. & Porter, Michael D. & Syntetos, Aris, 2022. "Forecasting for social good," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1245-1257.
    9. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Lehoux, P. & Miller, F.A. & Williams-Jones, B., 2020. "Anticipatory governance and moral imagination: Methodological insights from a scenario-based public deliberation study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Gallouj, Faïz & Weber, K. Matthias & Stare, Metka & Rubalcaba, Luis, 2015. "The futures of the service economy in Europe: A foresight analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 80-96.
    12. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Whether crude oil dependence and CO2 emissions influence military expenditure in net oil importing countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Miloš Ulman & Pavel Šimek & Jan Masner & Pavel Kogut & Tuula Löytty & Patrick Crehan & Karel Charvát & Antoni Oliva & Stein Runar Bergheim & Milan Kalaš & Denis Kolokol & Tommaso Sabbatini, 2020. "Towards Future Oriented Collaborative Policy Development for Rural Areas and People," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 12(1), March.
    14. James Derbyshire, 2020. "Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(4), pages 710-727, June.
    15. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    16. Sylvain Mondon, 2019. "Transformations organisationnelles, développement durable et temporalités d'action, un cas d'adaptation au changement climatique," Post-Print halshs-02967382, HAL.
    17. Habicher, Daria & Windegger, Felix & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Pechlaner, Harald, 2022. "Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    18. Yu, Xiang & Zhang, Ben, 2019. "Obtaining advantages from technology revolution: A patent roadmap for competition analysis and strategy planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 273-283.
    19. Rosiane Serrano & Luis Henrique Rodrigues & Daniel Pacheco Lacerda & Priscila Bonalume Paraboni, 2018. "Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning: Application in the Clothing Sector," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 509-537, October.
    20. Calabrese, Armando & Costa, Roberta & Levialdi, Nathan & Menichini, Tamara, 2019. "Integrating sustainability into strategic decision-making: A fuzzy AHP method for the selection of relevant sustainability issues," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 155-168.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02557600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.