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Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts

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  • Robinson, Douglas K.R.
  • Schoen, Antoine
  • Larédo, Philippe
  • Gallart, Jordi Molas
  • Warnke, Philine
  • Kuhlmann, Stefan
  • Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo

Abstract

The rich and complex outcomes of foresight activities are often difficult to translate into policy relevant intelligence. The struggle in connecting futures intelligence to policy making can be read as a basic challenge in foresight: working on futures intelligence has emerged as a way to improve policy, but once it is delegated to professional foresight practitioners with attendant quality and quality control, however, it also introduces a distance to policy making. Whilst independence and methodological rigour is desirable for high quality futures intelligence, bridging this intelligence with the policy context is essential for its use. Experiencing this challenge during a scenario exercise on the future European research and innovation system, the authors of this paper embarked on an experiment to go beyond evaluating the robustness of the scenarios, produced in a foresight exercise, by developing and applying “policy lenses” to translate the scenarios into policy tailored intelligence. This paper describes the experiment, which saw the development and application of three types of policy lenses: (1) a lens based on the layered processes of European policy making, (2) a lens based on three research and innovation policy priorities and (3) a lens on alternative geo-political situations of the European continent. The paper describes the logic behind the lenses, the interpretation of the original scenarios when viewed through these lenses, and then concludes by reflecting on how such an experiment could be generalised to other settings of policy-oriented foresight.

Suggested Citation

  • Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:169:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521002353
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120803
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    Cited by:

    1. Beata Poteralska, 2021. "Support for the Development of Technological Innovations at an R&D Organisation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & K. Matthias Weber, 2022. "Innovation Studies, Social Innovation, and Sustainability Transitions Research: From mutual ignorance towards an integrative perspective?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2227, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    3. Haddad, Carolina R. & Bergek, Anna, 2023. "Towards an integrated framework for evaluating transformative innovation policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    4. Douglas, Conor M.W. & Panagiotoglou, Dimitra & Dragojlovic, Nick & Lynd, Larry, 2021. "Methodology for constructing scenarios for health policy research: The case of coverage decision-making for drugs for rare diseases in Canada," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Hamed A Ead & Sahar M Fadallah & Heba M Fahmy & Mohamed Ramadan A Rezk & Leonardo Piccinetti & Mahmoud M Sakr, 2021. "Awareness of foresight through education in Egypt: a case study from Egyptian university," Post-Print hal-03584006, HAL.
    6. Wise, Emily & Arnold, Erik, 2022. "Evaluating Transformation – what can we learn from the literature?," Papers in Innovation Studies 2022/10, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.

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