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Local Economies and General Elections: The Influence of Municipal and Regional Economic Conditions on Voting in Sweden 1985–2002

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  • Elinder, Mikael

    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed analysis of voters’ responses to municipality and regional-level unemployment and economic growth, using panel data on 284 municipalities and 9 regions, covering Swedish general elections from 1982 to 2002. The preferred specification suggests that a reduction in regional unemployment by one percentage point is associated with an increase in the support for the national government by about 1.7 percentage points. The effect of growth, at the regional level, is substantial in size, but statistically insignificant. At the municipality level, unemployment has a smaller effect than at the regional level and growth has no effect on government support.

Suggested Citation

  • Elinder, Mikael, 2010. "Local Economies and General Elections: The Influence of Municipal and Regional Economic Conditions on Voting in Sweden 1985–2002," Working Paper Series 821, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0821
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    3. Lindgren, Karl-Oskar & Oskarsson, Sven & Persson, Mikael, 2019. "Access to education and political candidacy: Lessons from school openings in Sweden," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 138-148.
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    6. Podkolzina, Elena & Kuletskaya, Lada & Demidova, Olga, 2022. "Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 67, pages 74-96.
    7. Banaszewska, Monika & Bischoff, Ivo, 2021. "Grants-in-aid and election outcomes in recipient jurisdictions: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Chyi-Lu Jang & Chun-Ping Chang, 2016. "Vote Buying and Victory of Election: The Case of Taiwan," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 591-606.
    9. Panagiotis Artelaris & Yannis Tsirbas, 2018. "Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 589-608, June.
    10. José Garcia Montalvo & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, 2018. "Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties' competition," Economics Working Papers 1624, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Artés, Joaquín, 2014. "The rain in Spain: Turnout and partisan voting in Spanish elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 126-141.
    12. Arroyo Abad, Leticia & Maurer, Noel, 2021. "Do Pandemics Shape Elections? Retrospective voting in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Monika Banaszewska & Ivo Bischoff, 2018. "Grants-in-aid and the prospect of re-election: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201822, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.
    15. José García-Montalvo & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, 2018. "Bayesian Forecasting of Electoral Outcomes with new Parties' Competition," Working Papers 1065, Barcelona School of Economics.
    16. Gourley, Patrick & Khamis, Melanie, 2023. "It is not easy being a Green party: Green politics as a normal good," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Lindgren, Karl-Oskar & Oskarsson, Sven & Persson, Mikael, 2016. "How does access to education influence political candidacy? Lessons from school openings in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2016:7, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    18. Montalvo, José G. & Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros & Stumpf-Fétizon, Timothée, 2019. "Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-70.
    19. Chun-Ping Chang & Aziz N. Berdiev, 2015. "Do natural disasters increase the likelihood that a government is replaced?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1788-1808, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Voting; Local Economic Conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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