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A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development with Fertility?

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Listed:
  • Kenneth Harttgen

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Sebastian Vollmer

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Abstract

For more than a hundred years, advances in development were associated with decreasing fertility rates. This led to total fertility rates far below replacement level in most developed countries. However, during the last decade fertility rates started to increase again in various developed countries. Myrskylä et al (2009) argue that the relationship of the human development index (HDI) with the total fertility rate (TFR) reverses from negative (increases in HDI are associated with decreases in TFR) to positive (increases in HDI are associated with increases in TFR) at a HDI level of 0.85. We revisit this topic and find that the reversal in the HDI-TFR relationship is neither robust to UNDP’s recent revision in the HDI calculation method nor the decomposition of the HDI into its education, standard of living and health sub-indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Harttgen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development with Fertility?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 114, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:114
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    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_114.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    2. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    2. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    4. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "On the drivers of the fertility rebound," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 821-845, August.
    7. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    9. Takashi Oshio, 2019. "Is a positive association between female employment and fertility still spurious in developed countries?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(45), pages 1277-1288.
    10. S.K. Mohanty & Guenther Fink & Rajesh K. Chauhan & David Canning, 2016. "Distal Determinants of Fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian Districts," PGDA Working Papers 12415, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    11. Jonathan F. Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Ganlin Huang & Yaqiong Jiang, 2017. "Urbanization and Socioeconomic Development in Inner Mongolia in 2000 and 2010: A GIS Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.
    13. Jonathan Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 487-518, July.
    14. Hampton Gaddy, 2021. "A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(5), pages 125-142.
    15. Yoko Nakagaki, 2018. "Inverse J-Shaped Relationship between Fertility and Gender Equality: Different Relationships of the Two Variables According to Income Levels," Working Papers 165, JICA Research Institute.
    16. Ansgar Hudde, 2018. "Societal Agreement on Gender Role Attitudes and Childlessness in 38 Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 745-767, December.
    17. Sanjay K Mohanty & Gunther Fink & Rajesh Chauhan & David Canning, 2016. "Distal determinants of fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian districts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(13), pages 373-406.
    18. Yoko Nakagaki, 2019. "Convex relationship between fertility and gender gap," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 2014-2026.
    19. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    20. Luca Maria Pesando & GFC team, 2019. "Global Family Change: Persistent Diversity with Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 133-168, March.
    21. Martin Dribe & Michel Oris & Lucia Pozzi, 2014. "Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(7), pages 161-182.

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    Keywords

    Human development; education; health; standard of living; fertility;
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