IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/got/gotcrc/114.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development with Fertility?

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Harttgen

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Sebastian Vollmer

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Abstract

For more than a hundred years, advances in development were associated with decreasing fertility rates. This led to total fertility rates far below replacement level in most developed countries. However, during the last decade fertility rates started to increase again in various developed countries. Myrskylä et al (2009) argue that the relationship of the human development index (HDI) with the total fertility rate (TFR) reverses from negative (increases in HDI are associated with decreases in TFR) to positive (increases in HDI are associated with increases in TFR) at a HDI level of 0.85. We revisit this topic and find that the reversal in the HDI-TFR relationship is neither robust to UNDP’s recent revision in the HDI calculation method nor the decomposition of the HDI into its education, standard of living and health sub-indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Harttgen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development with Fertility?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 114, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    • Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    2. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    2. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Yoko Nakagaki, 2018. "Inverse J-Shaped Relationship between Fertility and Gender Equality: Different Relationships of the Two Variables According to Income Levels," Working Papers 165, JICA Research Institute.
    4. Ansgar Hudde, 2018. "Societal Agreement on Gender Role Attitudes and Childlessness in 38 Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 745-767, December.
    5. Sanjay K Mohanty & David Canning & Gunther Fink & Rajesh Chauhan, 2016. "Distal determinants of fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian districts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(13), pages 373-406.
    6. Yoko Nakagaki, 2019. "Convex relationship between fertility and gender gap," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 2014-2026.
    7. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    8. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    10. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "On the drivers of the fertility rebound," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 821-845, August.
    12. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Luca Maria Pesando & GFC team, 2019. "Global Family Change: Persistent Diversity with Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 133-168, March.
    14. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    15. Takashi Oshio, 2019. "Is a positive association between female employment and fertility still spurious in developed countries?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(45), pages 1277-1288.
    16. Martin Dribe & Lucia Pozzi & Michel Oris, 2014. "Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(7), pages 161-182.
    17. Jonathan F. Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Ganlin Huang & Yaqiong Jiang, 2017. "Urbanization and Socioeconomic Development in Inner Mongolia in 2000 and 2010: A GIS Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.
    19. Jonathan Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 487-518, July.
    20. Hampton Gaddy, 2021. "A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(5), pages 125-142.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Creina Day, 2012. "Will Fertility Rebound In Japan," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 395, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Samuel Fosu, 2013. "Banking Competition in Africa: Sub-regional Comparative Studies," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/12, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jun 2013.
    3. Barbara S. Okun & Liat Raz‐Yurovich, 2019. "Housework, Gender Role Attitudes, and Couples' Fertility Intentions: Reconsidering Men's Roles in Gender Theories of Family Change," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 169-196, March.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2012. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 5-41, February.
    5. Susanna M Makela & Rakhi Dandona & T R Dilip & Lalit Dandona, 2013. "Social Sector Expenditure and Child Mortality in India: A State-Level Analysis from 1997 to 2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-10, February.
    6. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    7. Farla, Kristine, 2012. "Institutions and credit," MERIT Working Papers 2012-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Ariel BenYishay & A. Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Social Learning and Communication," NBER Working Papers 20139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Malik, Zahra & Zaman, Khalid, 2013. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1103-1123.
    10. R. Radhakrishna & C. Ravi, 2016. "Multidimensional Aspect of Child Poverty in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 10(3), pages 302-316, December.
    11. Luca Tiberti & Marco Tiberti, 2015. "Rural Policies, Price Change and Poverty in Tanzania: An Agricultural Household Model-Based Assessment," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(2), pages 193-229.
    12. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    13. Sami Bensassi & Laura Márquez-Ramos & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Habib Zitouna, 2011. "The Geography of Trade and the Environment: The Case of CO2 Emissions," Working Papers 635, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    14. Mengni Chen & Chris J Lloyd & Paul S F Yip, 2018. "A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.
    15. Bertoli, Simone & Marchetta, Francesca, 2015. "Bringing It All Back Home – Return Migration and Fertility Choices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 27-40.
    16. Debowicz, Darío & Golan, Jennifer, 2014. "The impact of Oportunidades on human capital and income distribution in Mexico: A top-down/bottom-up approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 24-42.
    17. Imai, Katsushi S. & Gaiha, Raghav & Thapa, Ganesh & Annim, Samuel Kobina, 2012. "Microfinance and Poverty—A Macro Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1675-1689.
    18. Alkire, Sabina & Santos, Maria Emma, 2014. "Measuring Acute Poverty in the Developing World: Robustness and Scope of the Multidimensional Poverty Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 251-274.
    19. Kuo, Hsiao-I. & Chen, Chi-Chung & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Estimating the impact of whaling on global whale-watching," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1321-1328.
    20. Bojnec, Štefan, 2011. "Agricultural and Rural Labour Markets in the EU Candidate Countries of Croatia, Former Yugoslav of Macedonia and Turkey," Factor Markets Working Papers 102, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human development; education; health; standard of living; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dominik Noe (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/82144.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.