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Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern

Author

Listed:
  • Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

  • Manuel Perez-Trujillo

    (Universidad Católica del Norte)

  • Isabel Neira

    (Universidad de Santiago de Compostela)

Abstract

This paper analyses empirically the relationship between economic development and fertility. Through a new sample selection and quantile regression, it investigates whether there is an inverse J-shaped pattern between these two variables, and, if so, whether it depends on development and fertility levels. Our results confirm that the inverse J-shaped pattern exists, but only when a certain level of economic development is attained. Results also suggest an innovative finding: the J-shape depends not only on the development but also on the fertility level. The higher the fertility rate, the higher the GDP per capita needed to reverse fertility decline, and the faster the negative and positive segments of the J-shape fall and grow.

Suggested Citation

  • Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-016-9382-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-016-9382-4
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    4. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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    6. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2019. "Reconsideration of a simple approach to quantile regression for panel data: a comment on the Canay (2011) fixed effects estimator," Working Papers w0249, New Economic School (NES).
    7. Menescal, Lucas & Alves, José, 2024. "Optimal threshold taxation: An empirical investigation for developing economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    8. Yoko Nakagaki, 2018. "Inverse J-Shaped Relationship between Fertility and Gender Equality: Different Relationships of the Two Variables According to Income Levels," Working Papers 165, JICA Research Institute.
    9. Sho KOMATSU & Xinxin MA & Aya SUZUKI, 2022. "Influence of E-commerce on Birth Rate: Evidence from rural China based on county-level longitudinal data," Discussion papers 22101, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2019. "Reconsideration of a simple approach to quantile regression for panel data: a comment on the Canay (2011) fixed effects estimator," Working Papers w0249, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    11. Creina Day, 2018. "Inverse J Effect of Economic Growth on Fertility: A Model of Gender Wages and Maternal Time Substitution," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 577-587, December.
    12. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "Fertility and the oil curse," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 381-416, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    J-shaped pattern; Fertility rate; Economic development; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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