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Agriculture and adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and projected impacts of climate change:

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas, Timothy S.
  • Mainuddin, Khandaker
  • Chiang, Catherine
  • Rahman, Aminur
  • Haque, Anwarul
  • Islam, Nazria
  • Quasem, Saad
  • Sun, Yun

Abstract

The goal of this research was to examine the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh, and develop recommendations to policymakers to help farmers adapt to the changes. In this study, we use climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh by 2050. We use the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop modeling software to evaluate crop yields, first for the 1950 to 2000 period (actual climate) and then for the climates given by the four GCMs for 2050. We evaluate crop yields at 1,789 different points in Bangladesh, using a grid composed of roughly 10 kilometer (km) squares, for 8 different crops in 2000 and 2050. For each crop, we search for the best cultivar (variety) at each square, rather than limiting our analysis to a single variety for all locations. We also search for the best planting month in each square. In addition, we explore potential gains in changing fertilizer levels and in using irrigation to compensate for rainfall changes. This analysis indicates that when practiced together, using cultivars better suited for climate change and adjusting planting dates can lessen the impacts of climate change on yields, especially for rice, and in some cases actually result in higher yields. In addition, the analysis shows that losses in yield due to climate change can be compensated for, for many crops, by increasing the availability of nitrogen in the soil.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Timothy S. & Mainuddin, Khandaker & Chiang, Catherine & Rahman, Aminur & Haque, Anwarul & Islam, Nazria & Quasem, Saad & Sun, Yun, 2013. "Agriculture and adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and projected impacts of climate change:," IFPRI discussion papers 1281, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    2. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    4. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    6. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Aberman, Noora-Lisa & Ali, Snigdha & Behrman, Julia A. & Bryan, Elizabeth & Davis, Peter & Donnelly, Aiveen & Gathaara, Violet & Koné, Daouda & Nganga, Teresiah & Ngugi, Jane & Okoba, Barrack & Ronco, 2015. "Climate, change adaptation assets and group-based approaches: Gendered perceptions from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, and Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 1412, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Muntaha Rakib & Julia Anna Matz, 2016. "The Impact of Shocks on Gender-differentiated Asset Dynamics in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 377-395, March.
    3. Alamgir Kabir & Md Nurul Amin & Kushal Roy & Md Sarwar Hossain, 2021. "Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies in the coastal zone of Bangladesh: implications for adaptation to climate change in developing countries," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-25, October.
    4. Susmita Dasgupta & Md. Moqbul Hossain & Mainul Huq & David Wheeler, 2016. "Facing The Hungry Tide: Climate Change, Livelihood Threats, And Household Responses In Coastal Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Gaydon, Donald S. & Cramb, Rob & Roth, Christian H., 2018. "Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: I. Biophysical simulation in historical and future environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 107-122.
    6. Davis, Peter & Ali, Snigdha, 2014. "Exploring local perceptions of climate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1322, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Stanley Sharaunga & Maxwell Mudhara, 2021. "Analysis of Livelihood Strategies for Reducing Poverty Among Rural Women's Households: A Case Study of KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 127-150, January.
    8. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hossain, Md. Moqbul & Huq, Mainul & Wheeler, David, 2014. "Climate change, soil salinity, and the economics of high-yield rice production in coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7140, The World Bank.
    9. Shaikh Moniruzzaman, 2019. "Crop Diversification As Climate Change Adaptation: How Do Bangladeshi Farmers Perform?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-22, May.
    10. Nazmul Huq & Jean Hugé & Emmanuel Boon & Animesh K. Gain, 2015. "Climate Change Impacts in Agricultural Communities in Rural Areas of Coastal Bangladesh: A Tale of Many Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-24, June.
    11. Md. Arif Chowdhury & Rashed Uz Zzaman & Nusrat Jahan Tarin & Mohammad Jobayer Hossain, 2022. "Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2329-2351, February.
    12. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2022. "Changing occurrence of crop water surplus or deficit and the impact of irrigation: An analysis highlighting consequences for rice production in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

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    Keywords

    Climate change; Impact model; Adaptation; Agricultural productivity; Crop yields; Varieties;
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