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Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios

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  • Ringler, Claudia
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Cai, Ximing
  • Koo, Jawoo
  • Wang, Dingbao

Abstract

Climate change impacts vary significantly, depending on the scenario and the Global Circulation Model (GCM) chosen. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses a comprehensive climate change scenario (CCC) based on ensembles of 17 GCMs selected based on their relative performance regarding past predictions of temperature and precipitation at the level of 2o x 2o grid cells, generated by a recently developed entropy-based downscaling model. Based on past performance, the effects of temperature and precipitation across the 17 GCMs are incorporated into a global hydrological model that is linked with IFPRI's IMPACT water and food projections model to assess the effects of climate change on food outcomes for the region. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper finds that the CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures and mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period. Compared to historic climate scenarios, climate change will lead to changes in yield and area growth, higher food prices and therefore lower affordability of food, reduced calorie availability, and growing childhood malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Ringler, Claudia & Zhu, Tingju & Cai, Ximing & Koo, Jawoo & Wang, Dingbao, 2010. "Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios," IFPRI discussion papers 1042, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Mark W. Rosegrant & Tingju Zhu & Siwa Msangi & Timothy Sulser, 2008. "Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 495-505.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chan Bibi & Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2021. "Climate Change and Its Impact on Cash and Food Crop Production in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(4), pages 31-40, December.
    3. Alvin M. Igobwa & Jeremy Gachanja & Betsy Muriithi & John Olukuru & Angeline Wairegi & Isaac Rutenberg, 2022. "A canary, a coal mine, and imperfect data: determining the efficacy of open-source climate change models in detecting and predicting extreme weather events in Northern and Western Kenya," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-24, October.
    4. Isaac B Oluwatayo & Ayodeji O Ojo, 2018. "Food Insecurity and the Rising Urbanisation in Africa: Can ICT Revolution Bridge the GAP?," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 217-223.
    5. Kinda Somlanare Romuald, 2017. "Working Paper 286 - Climatic Shocks and Food Security The Role of Foreign Aid," Working Paper Series 2408, African Development Bank.
    6. repec:rac:ecchap:2017-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Odusola, Ayodele & Bhorat, Haroon & Conceição, Pedro, 2017. "Planting and nurturing the seeds of equity in Africa," UNDP Africa Research Discussion Papers 266951, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    8. Akoto-Danso, Edmund Kyei & Karg, Hanna & Drechsel, Pay & Nyarko, George & Buerkert, Andreas, 2019. "Virtual water flow in food trade systems of two West African cities," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 760-772.
    9. Sassi, Maria, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124111, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    10. Isaac Doku & Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Climate finance and hunger among non-annex-1 parties: a lens on Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(4), pages 380-398.
    11. Valentina Mereu & Gianluca Carboni & Andrea Gallo & Raffaello Cervigni & Donatella Spano, 2015. "Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 321-336, September.
    12. Pradeep Rai & Yadunath Bajgai & Jimba Rabgyal & Tirtha Bdr Katwal & Anthony Ryan Delmond, 2022. "Empirical Evidence of the Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts: A Case of Potato-Based Mountain Farming Systems in Bhutan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-27, February.
    13. Maria Sassi, 2013. "Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
    14. Roques, Kim G. & Jacobson, Susan K. & McCleery, Robert A., 2018. "Assessing contributions of volunteer tourism to ecosystem research and conservation in southern Africa," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(PC), pages 382-390.
    15. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    16. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Ayodele Odusola & Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Haroon Bhorat & Pedro Conceição & Ayodele Odusola & Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Haroon Bhorat & Pedro Concei ‹o, "undated". "Conclusions and Policy Recommendations," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-18, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    17. de Bruin, Kelly & Ayuba, Victoria, 2020. "What does Paris mean for Africa? An Integrated Assessment analysis of the effects of the Paris Agreement on African economies," Papers WP690, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Hounkonnou, Dominique & Kossou, Dansou & Kuyper, Thomas W. & Leeuwis, Cees & Nederlof, E. Suzanne & Röling, Niels & Sakyi-Dawson, Owuraku & Traoré, Mamoudou & van Huis, Arnold, 2012. "An innovation systems approach to institutional change: Smallholder development in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 74-83.
    19. Hamideh Maleksaeidi & Ezatollah Karami & Gholam Zamani, 2015. "Farm households’ resilience scale under water scarcity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1305-1318, December.
    20. Badolo, Felix & Kinda, Somlanare Romuald, 2012. "Climatic shocks and food security in developing countries," MPRA Paper 43006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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