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Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach

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  • Maria Sassi

Abstract

This paper simulates the possible sorghum price change and the related probability of occurrence under different rainfall scenarios and in a context of price uncertainty in international markets. The empirical investigation is based on the stochastic approach. Results indicate an expected increase in sorghum price due to a high level of uncertainty in precipitation and in international market price, the most change likely produced by the latter, and the need to alter the agricultural view of policy making to include a market perspective. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Sassi, 2013. "Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:19-32:10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1
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    1. Ringler, Claudia & Zhu, Tingju & Cai, Ximing & Koo, Jawoo & Wang, Dingbao, 2010. "Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios," IFPRI discussion papers 1042, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Food prices; Stochastic approach; Sudan; Q18; Q54;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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